Monday, September 29, 2014

Calm Until Thursday

Today 9/29 - Mostly Clear - High 83° / Tonight - Mostly Clear - Low 53°

Upper level flow will be quite quiet for today. This gives us some pretty peaceful weather for today. Some clouds in the morning hours will give way to mostly clear skies in the afternoon. Mid level air will become unsaturated, diminishing those clouds across the region. Our warming trend will continue as we'll top out around 83° once more. The upper level flow is about as effective as this baby is at blowing bubbles.
Conditions should remain mostly clear overnight. Lows will be right around 53°.

Tuesday 9/30 - Mostly Sunny - High 85° / Tue Night - Mostly Clear - Low 54°

Upper level ridging will become prevalent across the region on Tuesday. This will once again bring nice conditions to the region. The air over Bowling Green should remain fairly unsaturated, meaning clouds will be few and far between for the most part on Tuesday. Highs will be in the mid 80s once again. It's a good day to just chill on a picnic table.
Tuesday night will bring clear skies to the region once more. Lows will be in the mid 50s.

Wednesday 10/1 - Partly Cloudy - High 86° / Wed Night - Increasing Clouds - Low 63°

We'll be placed in the warm sector of an approaching low pressure system. This means we'll continue to see a warming trend across the area. Partly cloudy skies will likely develop across the region in response to increasing moisture across the area. Thus, partly cloud skies will be possible in the afternoon hours, but we should remain dry. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s.
WPC Forecast Frontal Positions - Valid Thursday AM - NOAA WPC
WPC Forecast Frontal Positions - Valid Thursday AM - NOAA WPC
With more clouds expected to develop in the overnight hours, overnight lows will be a bit mild. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s.

That should wrap up this forecast post. Be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG for the latest weather details. Have a great day!

Friday, September 26, 2014

Weekend Outlook

Today – Mostly Sunny; Warm – High 82º / Tonight – Mostly Clear; Cool – Low 60º

6am 58º – 9am 71º – 12pm 80º – 3pm 83º – 6pm 79º

Patchy fog is possible across low lying areas this morning and close to the Barren River. Grab a jacket on your way out the door this morning as temperatures are in the upper 50's. Things will warm up nicely this afternoon topping out in the low 80's. 

This is actually a few degrees above average for this time of year. This is in large due to a blocking pattern which features high pressure under a ridge across the eastern U.S. The RAP 200mb map shows a large trough out west with a ridge across the Midwest and East Coast.
RAP 200 mb Map

Saturday – Partly Sunny – High 82º / Sat Night – Cloudy; Cool – Low 65º

The area of high pressure will slowly shift east and dissipate over the weekend, allowing for a disturbance to move up from the south into the area. Clouds will start to stream in Saturday ahead of the system, however, the best chance for rain (still below a 30% chance) will be Saturday night through Sunday night. So if you were planning on going for a nice outdoor run this weekend, you can still go Saturday. Or try a treadmill...and end up like this guy.
31 GIFs That Will Make You Laugh Every Time

Sunday – Chance of Showers – High 78º / Sun Night – Chance of Showers – Low 62º

There is a 40% chance of rain during the day Sunday through Sunday night. However, the best looking upper air profiles will be to our north and west, and the low level disturbance moving up from the south will stay mainly to the south and west. This will help create sort of a dry slot in central Kentucky. However, some areas will still see a rain shower or two, so don't plan that picnic for Sunday just yet.

Here is the simulated reflectivity of the NAM for 7pm Sunday. Notice the NAM is forecasting for the bulk of the rain to move just to our south east. If the axis if heaviest precipitation shifts to the east or west over the next few days, our rainfall totals could definitely be impacted.


And that wraps up the morning forecast. Be sure to check in with @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on Twitter for real-time weather updates.

Thursday, September 25, 2014

Warming On Up

Today 9/25 – Mostly Sunny; Nice – High 81º / Thu Night – Mostly Clear; Cool – Low 56º

6am 51º – 9am 68º – 12pm 78º – 3pm 80º – 6pm 75º

Good morning, it is another chilly morning across southern Kentucky as current temperatures are running around 50°. Just like we have seen the last few days, temperatures will be quick to rise this afternoon and our highs should reach the lower 80s under mostly sunny skies.

All of this quiet weather is due to a prominent upper-level ridge over the eastern U.S. This ridge will remain in place through Saturday keeping our weather beautiful. Temperatures will fall into the middle 50s tonight and with light winds and clear skies expected, a few locations could see some fog late tonight into daybreak Friday.

Fri – Partly Sunny; Seasonable – High 82º / Fri Night – Partly Cloudy; Comfy – Low 59º

There isn't much weather to talk about Friday as we will see another partly sunny day with temperatures in the lower 80s. I'm sure there aren't too many complaints with these conditions.
Temperatures will only drop into the upper 50s tomorrow night which will feel a bit more mild than the rest of our nights this week.

Sat – Partly Sunny – High 84º / Fri Night – Mostly Cloudy – Low 61º

After each day of sitting under this large ridge, we find our temperatures rise a degree or two. By Saturday, temperatures may make a run into the middle 80s under partly sunny skies. Check out how the latest run of the NAM model thinks our ridge will appear in the mid levels of the atmosphere on Saturday...pretty impressive.
06Z NAM 500mb Heights & Winds valid at 7am Saturday (Courtesy: College of DuPage)
There is a chance we could see some isolated thunderstorm activity on Sunday thanks to an increase in low-level moisture. By Saturday night, expect cloud cover to be on the increase ahead of our next precipitation chance. Otherwise, we will stay dry with temperatures falling into the lower 60s.

That's all I've got for this morning, be sure to check in with @WxOrNotBG on Twitter for real-time weather updates.

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Sunny & Warmer

 Today 9/24 - Mostly Sunny - High 80° / Tonight - Mostly Clear - Low 51°

The rinse and repeat forecasts will continue to come as the upper air wind pattern remains pretty trivial for the next few days. There remains a substantial lack of upper level flow due to the jet stream being well north of the region. High pressure will remain in place across the area which will hinder cloud development. A slight warming trend will be noted. Highs today will likely be hovering around 80° under mostly sunny skies.
WPC Forecast Frontal Positions - Valid Wednesday - NOAA WPC
WPC Forecast Frontal Positions - Valid Wednesday - NOAA WPC
Tonight will bring mostly clear conditions to the region with a low of 51°.

Thursday 9/25 - Partly Cloudy - High 80° / Thur Night - Mostly Clear - Low 54°

A small area of low pressure will be spinning just off the coast of North Carolina on Thursday. This may provide enough moisture into the region to produce a few clouds here and there, especially in the morning hours. Most of the day should remain clear of clouds though. No precipitation is expected across the region. Highs will be around 80° once more under partly cloudy skies. Chest bump for 80's?!?
Okay, so maybe not that much...
Conditions should clear up in the afternoon and evening hours leaving us with mostly clear skies overnight. Lows will be around 54°.

Friday 9/26 - Partly Cloudy - High 82° / Fri Night - Partly Cloudy - Low 57°

Friday will bring an increase of moisture into the region. This will be enough moisture to produce some clouds across the region. Conditions should remain partly cloudy, but clouds will be a bit more widespread than on Thursday. Still, no precipitation is expected. Afternoon highs will be around 82°. I'm kind of getting tired of the boring weather here. This sums up my feelings pretty well...
Friday night will bring clouds to the region once again. I think some models are being a bit bullish on cloud cover, so we'll stick with partly cloudy skies. Lows will be in the mid to upper 70s.

That should do it for this forecast post. Be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG for all the latest weather information. Have a great day!

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

Nice Weather Continues

Today 9/23 - Mostly Sunny - High 75° / Tonight - Partly Cloudy - Low 48°

The weather will remain quiet across the Bowling Green area for the next several days. The jet stream will be located well to the north of the region. This means we'll have a substantial lack of upper air flow, which in turn means pretty boring weather for the next several days. Boring weather does mean nice weather, though. You can expect a high around 75° under mostly sunny skies. Again, boring weather, but nice weather nonetheless.
Tonight will bring a slight increase in cloud cover after midnight. Lows will be chilly once again around 48°.

Wednesday 9/24 - Mostly Sunny - High 79° / Wed Night - Mostly Clear - Low 51°

Wednesday will be a rinse and repeat forecast from today. Upper level wind flow will remain quite weak across the region. We can expect a gradual warm up due to the high sun angle still in place across the region. We'll still have a relatively dry air mass in place. This will help keep cloud cover to a minimum as temperatures max out around 79°.
NAM 250mb Wind Speed - Valid Wednesday Afternoon - College of DuPage
NAM 250mb Wind Speed - Valid Wednesday Afternoon - College of DuPage
Wednesday night will bring mostly clear conditions to the region once more. Lows will begin to warm back up into the 50s though. Expect a low around 51°.

Thursday 9/25 - Partly Cloudy - High 80° / Thur Night -Mostly Clear - Low 56°

Our surface flow will become a bit more out of the south as we'll be on the periphery of a surface high pressure system. This will bring in a bit warmer temperatures to the region. We'll still have a lack of moisture to work with to form clouds. Thus, mostly sunny skies can be expected across the region. Highs will be right around 80°. Return of the 80s.
Thursday night will bring warmer temperatures to the region. This will be due to some southerly winds across the area. Mostly clear skies will accompany a high of 56°.

That's all for this time! Be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG for all the latest weather information. Have a great day!