Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Cold Blast Ahead

Today 10/29 - Partly Cloudy - High 62° / Tonight - Mostly Clear - Low 39°

High pressure will work into the region from the west throughout the day. This should make the rain and clouds depart as we work into the afternoon hours. By afternoon conditions should be partly cloudy with highs around 62°. A little chilly, but definitely the best day in the forecast.
Tonight we should continue to clear out as high pressure continues to move in. Mostly clear skies are expected with lows just shy of 40°.

Thursday - Mostly Cloudy - High 58° / Thur Night - Showers Possible Late - Low 46°

A weak area of low pressure will begin to form on the periphery of an area of high pressure. This will lift a warm front through the region during the late afternoon hours. We'll likely see clouds build out ahead of the warm front as the day progresses. Mostly cloudy skies are expected by the mid afternoon hours. Highs will only reach around 58°.
WPC Forecast Frontal Positions - Valid Thursday PM - NOAA WPC
WPC Forecast Frontal Positions - Valid Thursday PM - NOAA WPC
The warm front will keep our temperatures from falling off too much during the overnight hours. Expect a few sprinkles and showers to form late in the night as the cold front associated with the weak low pressure system moves into the region. Lows will be around 46°.

Friday - Mostly Cloudy - High 53° / Fri Night - Rain/Snow Mix - Low 34°

A bit of a complex forecast unfolds for Halloween and Halloween Night. We'll see a mid level shortwave trough exit the region to the east during the morning hours. This is associated with the surface low pressure system that will bring us rain on Thursday night. We should see conditions dry out some by mid morning with clouds sticking around most of the day and highs occurring in the morning and dropping throughout the day. Below is a depiction of upper level features.
NAM Model 500mb Relative Vorticity - Valid 10 AM Friday - College of DuPage
NAM Model 500mb Relative Vorticity - Valid 10 AM Friday - College of DuPage
As this shortwave moves out of the region, a much stronger, deeper shortwave trough will move into the region from the Great Lakes region. This will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air to the region as high pressure to the west and low pressure to the east acts as a funnel for the cold air, as depicted below.
NAM Model Forecast 850mb Temperatures - Valid 4 PM Friday - College of DuPage
NAM Model Forecast 850mb Temperatures - Valid 4 PM Friday - College of DuPage
Some moisture will be associated with the shortwave as it moves through the area. This is the tricky part of the forecast. The precipitation should begin as rain. However, as the atmosphere above Bowling Green quickly cools, we could see a brief transition to a mixed bag of precipitation. Sleet, snow, and rain are all possible, but accumulations are not expected. Below gives you an idea of the big radar picture on Friday night.
NAM Model Forecast Simulated Radar - Valid 1 AM Saturday -
NAM Model Forecast Simulated Radar - Valid 1 AM Saturday -
Lows will drop well into the mid 30s as dry air filters in behind the precipitation.

That should wrap up this forecast, Be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG for all the latest weather details.

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Showers & Storms Expected Today

Today 10/28 - Scattered Thunderstorms - High 74° / Tonight - Scattered Showers - Low 50°

A cold front will be approaching the region today which will bring about some changes to our Bowling Green weather. The timing of the front and associated precipitation is a bit in question. However, it seems like the models are honing in around the 2-5 PM time frame. 

We'll be warming into the mid 70s prior to the front arriving to the region. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing to the west of the region, and they may strengthen a bit as they enter the region. A few storms may be strong with gusty wind being the main concern. The Storm Prediction Center indicates that the main threat will be to the east of I-65.
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Outlook - Valid Tuesday - NOAA SPC
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Outlook - Valid Tuesday - NOAA SPC
After the front pushes through the region, a few showers will be possible during the evening and overnight hours. Overall intensity of showers and thunderstorms should decrease. Lows will drop to around 50°.

Wednesday 10/29 - Partly Cloudy - High 61° / Wed Night - Partly Cloudy - Low 38°

On Wednesday high pressure will begin to work into the region behind the aforementioned cold front. This will help clear out the region of clouds and precipitation. By afternoon you can expect partly cloudy skies with highs struggling into the 60s across the area. Wind will also calm down a bit. Much better than today's forecast.
Wednesday night will bring mostly clear skies to the region. Due to the drier air and clear skies, temperatures will be able to drop like a rock into the upper 30s.

Thursday 10/30 - Partly Cloudy - High 57° / Thur Night - Partly Cloudy - Low 44°

On Thursday, a broad, weak area of low pressure will try to form to the west of the region. However, I think the high pressure that is settled in place will hinder the low pressure system's development over our region. Nevertheless, a few afternoon clouds will be possible and highs will be quite cool across the region as they only reach the mid to upper 50s. But, it just felt like summer...
Partly cloudy skies will continue overnight with lows rebounding a bit in the mid 40s.

That should wrap up this blog post. Be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG for the latest weather information.

Monday, October 27, 2014

Record Warmth Today; Rain Tuesday

Today 10/27 - Partly Cloudy - High 86° / Tonight - Partly Cloudy - Low 64°

A warm front associated with a broad low pressure system located to our northwest will continue to lift north out of the region today. Temperatures will warm quite a bit as our winds shift out of the south. It will be borderline hot today so break out the shorts and tee shirts once more. Highs will be around 86° under partly cloudy skies. Winds will remain out of the south around 10 mph.
WPC Forecast Frontal Positions - Valid 1 PM Monday - NOAA WPC
WPC Forecast Frontal Positions - Valid 1 PM Monday - NOAA WPC
Clouds may increase in front of an advancing cold front that will impact the area tomorrow. Lows will be around 64°. Wind will be out of the south around 10 mph.

Tuesday 10/28 - Rainy - High 76° / Tue Night - Scattered Showers - Low 50°

On Tuesday the aforementioned cold front will make its way into the region. At this time, the timing of the front looks like Tuesday afternoon. Because of this, I expect a majority of the instability will remain low across the area. Thus, widespread showers are expected with perhaps some embedded thunder. 

Wind fields aloft are fairly strong, so a very isolated strong thunderstorm can't be ruled out. However, expect mostly just heavy rain showers. Highs will be in the mid 70s. Wind will be out of the south around 10 mph, shifting to out of the northwest after the frontal passage. Below is forecast radar imagery by 1 PM Tuesday.
NAM Simulated Radar - Valid 1 PM Tuesday - College of DuPage
NAM Simulated Radar - Valid 1 PM Tuesday - College of DuPage
We should expect rain showers to decrease in coverage and intensity in the evening and overnight hours as the front races to the east of the region. Lows will hover right around 50° due to fairly thick cloud cover. Wind should become calm as the front moves east.

Wednesday 10/29 - Partly Cloudy - High 64° / Wed Night - Clear - Low 37°

High pressure will move into the region as the frontal system passes off to the east. Thus, generally will expect clearing conditions for your Wednesday. The front certainly did its damage on the high temperatures though as we'll see highs struggle to reach the mid 60s once more.
On Wednesday night high pressure will move closer to the region depleting moisture in the region. Thus, mostly clear skies are expected with lows in the mid to upper 30s.

That should wrap it up for this post. Be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG for the latest weather news. Have a great day!

Friday, October 24, 2014

Another Quiet One In Store

Today – Mostly Sunny; Warm – High 70º / Tonight – Partly Cloudy; Cold – Low 45º

6am 40º – 9am 52º – 12pm 64º – 3pm 70º – 6pm 65º

We are currently sitting in between two high pressure systems, allowing for sunny skies and warm weather to build into the area over the next few days. Expect high temperature to top out around 70 today. A nice warm up after a stretch of cool Fall temperatures!

NWS Surface Map

Saturday – Mostly Sunny; Warm – High 76º / Sat Night – Mostly Clear; Cool – Low 48º

Even warmer air will funnel into the area throughout the weekend. Mix sunny skies and the mid 70's and we are talking prime backyard barbecue weather.

Sunday – Mostly Sunny; Warm – High 78º / Sun Night – Mostly Clear; Cold – Low 52º

Don't be caught sitting inside Sunday. Temperatures will once again be in the mid to upper 70's with sunny skies. You may even want to go for a swim.
NAM Temperature Saturday Afternoon
NAM Temperature Sunday Afternoon
That about does it for the weather this morning. Be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG on Twitter for real-time weather updates.

Thursday, October 23, 2014

Same Weather, Different Day

Today 10/23 – Mostly Sunny; Cool - High 64º / Tonight – Partly Cloudy; Cold - Low 38º

6am 38º - 9am 50º - 12pm 60º - 3pm 64º - 6pm 58º

Good morning, we are currently seeing temperatures near 40° this morning as we are off to another chilly start. Quiet weather will continue today with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the lower to middle 60s thanks to an area of surface high pressure to our north.
Forecast surface analysis at 7am CST today (Courtesy: WPC)
A weak shortwave trough will swing through the Ohio Valley this evening, but high pressure at the surface will keep us dry overnight. As the trough swings through we can expect a few more clouds overnight and temperatures will fall into the upper 30s.

Fri – Mostly Sunny; Warmer – High 70º / Fri Night – Mostly Clear; Cold – Low 47º

An upper-level ridge currently situated over the central U.S. will slowly shift eastward into our area beginning on Friday. This trough will help to usher in some warmer temperatures and keep our weather quiet.
Expect a beautiful day today with mostly sunny skies and a high near 70º. We can expect temperatures nearly ten degrees warmer tomorrow night with lows dropping into the upper 40s.

Sat – Mostly Sunny; Warmer – High 75º / Sat Night – Mostly Clear; Cold  – Low 48º

The combination of ridging at the upper levels of the atmosphere and surface high pressure at the lower levels will keep our weather beautiful on Saturday. While we've all been enjoying this gorgeous fall weather lately, us forecasters must admit that the weather has been a little boring.
Temperatures will be even warmer on Saturday with highs in the middle 70s. Mostly sunny skies are expected and it's looking like Saturday will be an ideal day for any outdoor plans. Low temperatures will drop into the upper 40s overnight.

That's all I've got for this morning, be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on Twitter for real-time weather updates.