Thursday, March 19, 2015

Rain Early; Nice Weekend To Follow

Today 3/19 - Mostly Cloudy; Isolated Showers - High 52° / Tonight - Mostly Cloudy - Low 47°

A weak surface low pressure system brought us overnight rain showers for much of the region. This disorganized surface low will continue spinning to our south, providing us with a chance of isolated showers throughout much of the day. The showers in the morning may be more widespread. The high res NAM model displays showers ending around 10 AM.
Hi Res NAM Simulated Radar - Valid 10 AM - WeatherBELL Analytics
Hi Res NAM Simulated Radar - Valid 10 AM - WeatherBELL Analytics
Otherwise, mostly cloudy conditions are expected through the remainder of the day. Highs will reach around 52° across the area with wind speeds around 5 to 10 mph possible.
The rain should diminish during the overnight hours, leaving us with mostly cloudy skies and a low around 47°.

Friday 3/20 - Mostly Cloudy - High 57° / Fri Night - Partly Cloudy - Low 40°

High pressure will settle back into place across the region on Friday, bringing an end to the precipitation chances. However, the mostly cloudy skies will likely remain in place. Highs will reach around 57° during the afternoon hours. Clouds may thin out some just in time for a nice sunset.
Partly cloudy skies can be expected overnight with lows hovering around 40°.

Saturday 3/21 - Mostly Clear; Warm - High 65° / Sat Night - Partly Cloudy - Low 45°

Overall a nice day is on tap for Saturday. With the high pressure locked in place across the region, the cloudy skies should continue to diminish to mostly clear skies. A slight southerly flow at the surface will lead to warmer temperatures across the region. This, coupled with adequate sunshine, should lead to afternoon highs in the mid 60s across the area.
h/t buzzfeed
h/t buzzfeed
Partly cloudy skies will spread into the region once more overnight, leading to lows in the mid 40s.

That should wrap up this post. Be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX for all the Bowling Green weather details. Have a great day!

Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Rain Chances Tonight Thru Friday

Today – Increasing Clouds – High 52° / Tonight – Rain – Low 42°

Clouds will be on the increase today as rain begins to move back into the region this evening. Temperatures will also be 15 to 20 degrees cooler than the past several days. Bummer, yea I know! The NAM 4 km shows rain beginning to move in between 3 pm and 5 pm.
Nam 4 km via WeatherBell Analytics
Nam 4 km via WeatherBell Analytics

Thursday – Rain – High 50° / Thurs Night – Rain – Low 44°

If you were hoping Thursday would be nice and warm again, well your out of luck! Rain will move out Thursday morning with scattered light showers and clouds hanging around during the day. Temperatures will also be on the chilly side. More rain moves back in Thursday night into Friday morning.

Friday – Rain Early – High 56° / Fri Night – Clearing – Low 40°

We warm up a few degrees Friday, but early morning rain and lingering clouds will make the day less than ideal. At least we aren't seeing high temperatures in the single digits though!
Minor flooding is possible with any moderate rainfall across the area due to completely saturated ground. However, total rainfall across the region should be less than 0.5 inches, keeping flooding to a minimum.
Weather Prediction Center 5 Day Rainfall Forecast
Weather Prediction Center 5 Day Rainfall Forecast
Have a great day and don't get too bummed about the clouds, spring is just around the corner! For real-time weather updates, be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG on Twitter.

Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Cooler Today; Rain Late Wednesday

Today: Partly sunny, with a  high of 62ºF. Tonight: Mostly clear, with a  low of 31ºF.

Well, today is the last day of fantastic weather for at least a few days. After the incredibly wet stretch of weather that we have had recently, the past couple days have been very much needed across the region.

As we go through the day, a dreaded cold front will march into the area from the northwest. Its evident within forecast temp plots, but you won't notice much in the way of precipitation or significant cloud cover.
Where's the cold front? h/t Weatherbell
Temp model valid 9am... where's the cold front? h/t Weatherbell
Clouds will begin increasing as the morning progresses and temps will rise pretty fast through the morning and then fall in the afternoon. Look for max temps to be around the low 60s. When the cold front passes, even though it'll be dry (weird for this time of year), you'll know it. Temps will fall and winds will kick up.
No, it won't be that windy. h/t imagur.cim
No, it won't be that windy. h/t
Temps will continue to fall into the evening as skies clear out across the region. This will allow lows to dip into the low and mid 30s.

Wednesday: Increasing clouds. High of 52ºF. Wed. night: Cloudy, with rain approaching late. Low of 40ºF.

Well, the 60s and 70s were incredibly while they lasted. This is much more reasonable for me to expect. None of us should have believed that we were gonna end up now getting spring consistently, but it still hurts...
The cold front Tuesday will have little effect on what type of precip we get, but Wednesday looks to be the start of a pretty wet stretch across the region. During the day, we will see precip increase in coverage and intensity across the region ahead of a low pressure system riding eastward.
NOT AGAIN. h/t Weatherbell
NOT AGAIN. h/t Weatherbell
This will keep temps confined to the lower 50s, and maybe even upper 40s across the region. That sounds awful. Rain will continue into the night, as temps don't drop much, into the lower 40s.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy (still). High of 50ºF. Thur. night: Take a wild guess? Cloudy. Low of 43ºF.

I'm bracing myself for this again. I thought I was done with this on Saturday when there was drizzle my entire drive from Murfreesboro, TN to Georgetown, KY. I really thought I was done. I am wrong. Thursday looks awful.
I am excited for the cold again...h/t
I am excited for the cold again...h/t
Just look at this radar forecast for Thursday evening:
Drizzle...*shivers* h/t Weatherbell
Drizzle...*shivers* h/t Weatherbell
Look at how nasty that looks. Avoid it. Please. Highs on Thursday will likely get up into the upper 40s and lower 50s and the lows will end up somewhere around the low 40s.

Well, that is all I have for you today. Make sure to follow @WxOrNotBG on Twitter for the latest real-time weather updates.

Monday, March 16, 2015

Beautiful Today; Rain Mid Week

Today 3/16 – Warm; Partly Sunny – High 76° / Tonight – Mostly Clear – Low 53°

6am 48˚ – 9am 55˚ – 12pm 66˚ – 3pm 71˚ – 6pm 67˚

Good morning! If you enjoyed yesterday's spring-like weather you're in luck, as another beautiful day is on tap today. Upper-level ridging is helping to keep temperatures warm, and with most of the jet stream activity to our north southern Kentucky can expect pleasant weather through the first half of the work week.

High temperatures will reach the mid to upper 70s this afternoon, with breezy southwest winds up to 10mph. Tonight's low temperatures are expected to remain above 50º under mostly clear skies. Break out the shorts if you haven't already and be sure to get outside and enjoy today's weather.
Tuesday 3/17 – Mostly Cloudy; Breezy – High 65° / Tue Night – Mostly Clear; Windy; Cool – Low 35° 

Tomorrow's weather will be cooler as a cold front associated with surface low pressure far to our northeast will move north to south across the state during the day.  Fortunately, a lack of forcing will keep most of the state dry as the front moves south.
Predicted surface analysis valid at 7am CST Tuesday (Courtesy: WPC)
The chance for isolated showers will stay to our east although cloud cover will build during midday as the front passes. Winds will turn to the north and highs will reach the 60s tomorrow before temperatures begin to rapidly fall tomorrow evening. Expect tomorrow night's lows to bottom out in the lower to middle as skies clear.

Wednesday 3/18 – Partly Cloudy; Cooler – High 53° / Wed Night – Mostly Cloudy; Sct'd Showers – Low 40°

Expect calm weather throughout the day on Wednesday. Temperatures will struggle to rebound behind the cold front as high temperatures are only expected to reach the 50s.
Clouds will increase Wednesday evening as a disturbance to our southwest begins to move east. Cloud cover will limit temperatures from falling much Wednesday night as scattered showers move into southern Kentucky. 

At this point, models are in disagreement with how much moisture will make it north into Kentucky. At this point, less than 0.25" of rainfall is possible before daybreak Thursday but stay tuned to any changes in the forecast over the next few days. 

For real-time weather updates, be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG on Twitter.

Friday, March 13, 2015

Return Of The Rain

Today 3/13 - Rain Likely - High 62˚ / Tonight - Rain Likely - Low 52˚

*Flood Watch thru 12pm Saturday*

A closed low to our southwest will soon open up and begin to cut a path northeast across the lower Ohio Valley.  This will amp up southerly flow across the viewing area, which will greatly increase the amount of moisture in our atmosphere.  

The increase in moisture will result in periods of moderate to heavy rain throughout our Friday.  Rain showers have already engulfed much of the area, which will only continue to beleaguer our weather conditions.  With ample rain expected, a Flood Watch will remain in effect through all of today into Saturday.  Whatever you do...
...don't forget that umbrella.

The NAM model below loops every 3 hours from 7am - 7pm today.  It will give you a better idea of how this system will behave:

NAM Model Valid 7am thru 7pm Friday - WeatherBELL
NAM Model Valid 7am thru 7pm Friday - WeatherBELL
As we get into tonight, another swath of moderate precipitation will work over the area, keeping the wet stuff in the forecast.

Sat 3/14 - Scat'd Showers - High 66˚ / Sat Night - Partly Cloudy - Low 42˚

A surface low pressure system associated with this system will track over the area on Saturday, keeping light, hit & miss showers in the forecast.  

Although the start of the weekend looks to have a damp feel, southerly flow will escort highs to the upper 60s.

We'll see isolated showers during the afternoon taper off to partly cloudy skies by Saturday evening, with continued clearing expected into the early morning hours of our Sunday.

Sun 3/15 - Mostly Sunny - High 65˚ / Sun Night - Clear - Low 37˚

High pressure attempting to build into the region will provide immaculate weather conditions as we close out the weekend.  Highs in the mid 60s.  Sunny skies.
*Drops The Mic*

We'll keep plenty of sunshine in the forecast to start out the following work week as well, as high pressure maintains control over south central Kentucky.

That's all I've got for the morning update.  As always, stay in touch with @WxOrNotBG for the latest real-time weather information.  Stay dry, and have a great Friday!