Friday, February 27, 2015

The Colds Last Stand

Today – AM Flurries; Gradual Clearing – High 26˚ / Tonight – Cloudy – Low 18˚

After a mostly sunny and relatively warm Thursday, I'm sure many people saw the light at the end of the tunnel!  Today is one of those days that shuts the door on that light. High temperatures won't even make into the 30's today as an Arctic High sits just to our north.

A few flurries will be possible as what's left of low clouds pushes south of the area.  Hit and miss snow showers last night has covered a few back roads, so please use caution on the morning commute.  

Aside from the lingering clouds, we'll experience bitter temperatures that will struggle to make the mid 20s.  A persistent, northwest wind will place wind chill values in the single digits for much of the day...
So. Freakin'. Cold.

Saturday – Partly Sunny – High 40˚ / Sat Night – Mostly Cloudy – Low 32˚

Saturday brings back a little be of the sweetness of Spring...but just a little. Early clouds will clear out and bring partly sunny skies, with temperatures topping out around 40˚. This may feel like lake weather for some, considering cold we've experienced...just don't jump in the water or you could end up like Jack.

Nashville may end up closer to 50 degrees Saturday. Notice the warm nose of air pushing up from the south through middle/west Tennessee. Cross your fingers and hope that inches a little farther north!
NAM Surface Temperatures Saturday Afternoon

Sunday – Chance of Rain – High 48˚ / Sun Night – Rain – Low 36˚

The warming trend continues into Sunday, however, there's a catch!

Scattered rain showers will move into the region Sunday and increase in coverage Sunday evening. The rain will continue off and on until mid week. Sloppy weather indeed!
The Weather Prediction Center shows the potential for 2-4" of rain throughout next week. Much of the state is currently experiencing a drought, so a nice, steady rain should be welcomed.
Weather Prediction Center 7 Day Rainfall Forecast
Weather Prediction Center 7 Day Rainfall Forecast

Our warming trend will continue with these rain chances.  High temperatures ~50˚ are slated for both Sunday and Monday, with a legit chance of making a run at 60˚ come Tuesday!

Celebrate accordingly...

That's all the fun for this morning. Be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG for the latest real-time weather info.

Thursday, February 26, 2015

Scattered Snow Chances This Afternoon

Today 2/26 - Cool; PM Snow/Rain Showers - High 33° / Tonight - Partly Cloudy; Flurries - Low 17°
Last night's snow event stayed just southeast of the area, lining up very well with the forecast. Reports ranging from a dusting up to 1.5" came in from Allen & Barren County. 

We'll be stuck under the influence of northwest flow aloft for today, which will help keep those temps down some. Rays of sunshine early will give way to increasing clouds by mid morning. Afternoon highs will struggle to reach the lower 30s under partly cloudy skies.
A piece of energy will move into the region from the north during the early afternoon. This could provide enough lift to produce some scattered snow and rain showers from time to time.

As of now, these don't look like much of a big deal.  Flying flurries look most plausible, however, we can't rule out a few stray snow showers.  Accumulations aren't likely, however, we can't rule out a sporadic coating with this system.

The 4km NAM simulated radar model below is valid for 4pm this afternoon, and favors the idea of light snow activity over the region:
Hi Res NAM Simulated Radar - Valid This Afternoon - WeatherBELL Analytics
Hi Res NAM Simulated Radar - Valid 4pm Thursday - WeatherBELL Analytics
Partly cloudy skies will return tonight, and we'll keep a few isolated flurries here and there. Temperatures will drop fairly quick into the mid to upper teens across the region, If a few more clouds move out, then temperatures will likely drop lower than expected.

Friday 2/27 - Partly Cloudy; Cold - High 25° / Fri Night - Cloudier - Low 15°

High pressure will move south out of Canada and into south central Kentucky on Friday. And yes, we'll feel the effect of its origin, as temps remain well below freezing for the entire day. Some partly cloudy skies can be expected, but overall the sun won't provide much comfort as afternoon highs reach only 25°.
*You*     h/t

*You*       h/t
*Me*     h/t

*Me*       h/t
Friday night will bring a few more clouds into the region which will help prevent temperatures from really bottoming out. However, bundle up if you're out and about because lows will still drop into the mid teens.

Saturday 2/28 - Partly Cloudy - High 37° / Sat Night - Cloudy - Low 31°

We'll see somewhat of a warming trend begin Saturday, thanks to that high pressure system moving to our east. This will cause our surface flow to turn a bit more southerly. Under partly cloudy skies, the high will reach a steamy 37°. No, not the warmest, but we'll take what we can get.
When will it ever end!?!

Saturday night will bring cloudy skies to the region and a mild low of 31°, thanks to the cloud cover.

The beginning of next week is beginning to look very warm compared to the conditions we've been seeing. Clouds will become more abundant on Sunday, as temps catapult to the upper 40s.

This will be in response to our next weather maker that looks to bring showers and storms to the area Sunday night - Tuesday.  The details are far from being ironed out, but we'll be keeping an eye on it. It looks as though signs of spring may be on the horizon.

That should wrap up this blog post. Be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG for the latest weather information.

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Snow Chances Tonight & Thursday

Today 2/25 - Increasing Clouds - High 38º / Tonight - Scat'd Snow Showers - Low 26º

Good Wednesday morning, Bowling Green! You are officially halfway through the week, and for those of us who were off all last week, making it this far is definitely a feat to celebrate.
giphy (7)
What is your reward weather-wise? Although clouds will be on the increase as the day progresses, temperatures will reach the upper-30s by the afternoon. These conditions will not last for long, however, as two storm systems begin to make their way towards our area.
Wed 6PM
WPC Surface Map, Valid 6PM Wednesday, via NOAA
First, a low pressure system to our south will move northeastward towards the Atlantic, bringing us the possibility of some scattered snow showers tonight. Accumulations look to be minor, but south central Kentucky could receive a dusting up to 1/2" of that white stuff we've come to know so well.

The greatest accumulations will be the southeastern tier of our area (Allen & Barren County, who will be under a winter weather advisory starting at 4pm this afternoon), along with the the Lake Cumberland region.  Up to 1-2" of snow will be possible for these locations. Minor accumulations could cause travel implications Thursday morning, so be on the lookout for further updates.

Thursday 2/26 - Sct'd Snow Showers - High 35º / Thursday Night - Cloudy and Cold - Low 15º

A system from the northwest will be moving through on Thursday, bringing colder temperatures and another slight chance at scattered snow showers. Anything that falls on Thursday looks to be light, due to the lack of adequate moisture, but minor accumulations will once again be possible.
Thursday 6AM
WPC Surface Map, via 6AM Thursday, via NOAA
Temperatures will once again rise above freezing on Thursday (heat wave?!) but much cooler air will be coming in behind the aforementioned disturbance. Winds will shift northwesterly on Thursday, causing temperatures to drop into the teens overnight.

Friday 2/27 - Partly Cloudy & Colder - High 24º / Friday Night - Mostly Cloudy - Low 12º

High pressure will begin to build into our region once again on Friday, bringing even colder Arctic air to Bowling Green. Highs look to remain stuck in the 20s, but at least the sun will grace us with its presence. Lows Friday night will plummet into the lower teens... yet again.
6AM Sat
WPC Surface Map, Valid 6AM Saturday, via NOAA
Warmer temperatures are on the way this weekend, however! Highs look as though they'll reach the mid-30s on Saturday and closer to 50° on Sunday... Local climate normals, here we come.
WPC Max Temp Forecast, Valid Sunday, via NOAA

Thanks for the read! Make sure to follow @WxOrNotBG for the latest real-time weather info for south central Kentucky!

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Cold Shot & Snow Chances On The Horizon

Today: Partly sunny. High of 35ºF / Tonight: Clear skies invade the province. Lows around 23ºF.
The Kingdom of Southern Kentucky has been in the line of multiple Arctic Crusades recently. h/t
Much like the Crusades in the middle ages, I feel like the Arctic air has been the Catholics to our Middle East. It just keeps coming into the land and taking all of our joy and hope. The kings (troughs) are sending their warriors in white robes (snowfall) to bombard our region with arctic air.
The areal extent of the last arctic crusade to hit us.
The areal extent of the last arctic crusade to hit us.
We have another wave coming. Batten down the hatches. Get the kids inside. The Arctic Crusades are coming. Prior to their arrival, the war front will be hidden amongst clouds, as they dominate the western front today. This will keep the air a bit crisp, as highs make it into the mid 30s. Rays of light in the sky are probable as well.

Overnight, the skies will begin clearing, and we begin fighting the invasion of the Arctic crusade again. Lows drop into the lower 20s, which means we likely will win this battle and it won't end up too cold.
The Crusade held off! h/t
The Crusade held off! h/t

Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High of 37ºF / Wed. night: Cloudy, chance of snow. Low of 27ºF

The Crusades are halting over the kingdoms of the northern Plains for now, and we look to the south for an alternate crusade army to invade the region. With a new king (trough of low pressure system) invading the southeast, some of the snow brigades will attempt to make their way into the southern KY kingdom Wednesday night.
The snow brigades look to try to make a run at us, but fall just short on Wednesday. h/t weatherbell
NAM Simulated Radar valid Wednesday 9pm. h/t weatherbell
Though this king will prove to topple the southeast kingdoms, we should be able to fight off this crusade...for now. The models have trended northward with the track of the system, so we shall see what transpires. At this point in time, minor accumulations look possible, if anything.

Temperatures with the associated attack will only be in the lower 30s, which isn't cold compared to the last take over of the Arctic Crusades. Lows overnight should only dip into the upper 20s under cloudy skies.

Thursday: Continued cloudiness in the kingdom; snow chances continue. High of 32ºF / Thur. night: An Arctic Crusade attacks. Cloudy, with a low of 15ºF.

I knew the continued cloudiness was part of the plot...
The Arctic forces are laughing. h/t
The Arctic forces are laughing. h/t
The Arctic Crusade has been lurking over the northern Kingdoms, and looks to make its move overnight Thursday.  Before this occurs, however, highs during the day Thursday will disguise the impending attack from the colder air. This will be occurring as scattered snow showers continue to litter the region.

Temps will be in the low to mid 30s under mostly cloudy skies throughout the day, so only minor accumulations are expected. The kingdom will think all is well...
The Crusade is coming! h/t Weatherbell
The Crusade is coming! h/t Weatherbell
Then it hits. The next Crusade in this series will be on the attack on Thursday night and our defenses will have nothing to do about it. Temps will fall into the lower teens by Friday morning, and will be aided by the White Brigade (isolated snow showers), to help plunge the kingdom into continued cold.

Tis all the weather information I bear today. I bid you give @WxOrNotBG a follow on the Twitter for real-time updates on the kingdom's (southern Kentucky) weather.

Monday, February 23, 2015

Cold Shot After Cold Shot

Today 2/23 - Partly Cloudy; Cold - High 22º / Tonight - Partly Cloudy; Cold - Low 12º

6am 22°– 9am 19˚ – 12pm 20˚ – 3pm 22˚ – 6pm 20˚

Good morning, south central Kentucky!  Be sure to watch for black ice on your morning commute, as temps will be hovering around 20º today. Mostly cloudy skies throughout the morning is expected to give way to filtered rays of sun this afternoon.  

This will be thanks to an area of high pressure that settles over the Ohio Valley this evening.  The surface map below is valid for 6pm, and depicts the high over southern Illinois/Indiana:
Bowling Green Weather
Predicted surface map valid at 6pm CST tonight (Courtesy: WPC)
This area of high pressure will usher cold air into the region today, and we may actually cool a few degrees this morning, before reaching the lower 20s again this afternoon. Northerly winds are expected to pester us at around 10 mph through mid-morning, meaning wind chill values could drop around 0-10ºF. Layer up, folks...

Fortunately, wind chills will rise as winds die down this afternoon. We can expect a cold night under the influence of calm winds and partly skies. Low temperatures will drop to the lower teens.  Some rural locations could see single digit readings.

Tuesday 2/24 – Partly Cloudy – High 33º / Tuesday Night – Mostly Cloudy – Low 22º

The cause of this persistent cold is what we call a trough in the jet stream.  This trough is currently positioned over the eastern U.S. with a ridge over the west. A few disturbances will rotate through the trough this week, meaning persistent shots of cold air will keep temperatures below normal across all of south central Kentucky.

Temperatures will warm to the lower 30s Tuesday afternoon under partly cloudy skies.  This will be a good afternoon for much of the remaining snowpack to melt. A cold front is anticipated to move through the area Tuesday night.  Although isolated snow showers will stay to our north, cold air will move in behind the front, with lows dropping into the lower 20s.

Wednesday 2/25 – Partly Cloudy – High 37º / Wednesday Night – Scat'd Flurries – Low 15º

Expect Wednesday's weather conditions to look very similar to Tuesday's, with the exception of us getting a few degrees warmer. Another disturbance will move through the trough in the jet stream Wednesday evening guessed it, another shot of cold air.
There could be enough lift along Wednesday night's cold front to bring some flurries to southern Kentucky, but as for now just expect another cold night with temperatures in the middle teens.

The rest of the week looks cold, but it appears likely that we'll stay dry enough for the sun to melt most of the snowpack left across the Commonwealth.

That's all I've got for this morning. Be sure to check out @WxOrNotBG on Twitter for real-time weather updates.