Friday, July 25, 2014

Storm Chances This Weekend

Today 7/25– Mostly Sunny – High 85° / Tonight – Partly Cloudy – Low 68°

6am 61º – 9am 73º – 12pm 81º – 3pm 85º – 6pm 83º

The weather for today looks pretty darn good with warm temperatures reaching the low to mid 80s across the area and more comfortable humidity values as well. The passing front from Wednesday evening and associated area of high pressure still helping to keep things under control for now. Here's our surface map for 1pm today:
Surface Map valid for 1pm Courtesy NOAA WPC
This evening and tonight looks great with partly cloudy skies and temperatures falling into the upper 60s across the region. A great way to bring in the weekend!

Saturday 7/26– Mostly Sunny – High 93° /  Saturday Night – Iso'd T-storms – Low 73°

Model guidance has high pressure drifting east for Saturday and southerly flow kicking into gear, temperatures and dewpoints will be on the increase throughout the day ahead of our next storm system approaching from the northwest. Late afternoon hours will be the warmest with heat indices approaching 100 contingent to any showers that my pop-up, which can't be ruled out at this point. A pretty sultry evening indeed.
Overnight Saturday could bring some thunderstorm and shower activity as necessary dynamics begin to approach the Ohio Valley with the next storm system. A frontal boundary and upper level winds will add to the chances of precipitation overnight, but most activity will stay to our north. Expect continued southerly flow and lows in the low 70s.

Sunday 7/27– Chance of Rain & T'storms – High 95° /  Sunday Night – Chance of Thunderstorms– Low 74°

Sunday will be our biggest threat for interesting weather as more organized areas of thunderstorms are expected with the upper level support and frontal boundary entering the region. The chance for storms and precipitation will be all throughout the day but the best bet for activity will be in the afternoon and evening hours with the highest levels of convective energy available.

GFS has us pretty darn warm Sunday afternoon:
Surface Temperatures as suggested by GFS for Sunday at 1pm.. WARM SECTOR
Model guidance indicates a round of storms possible around lunch time for Bowling Green and could play a huge role on storm development later into the day. However, upper level dynamics kick into high gear later and could instigate more development.

GFS and NAM both suggest a shortwave entering the area late Sunday night, which could mean the chance for two rounds of storms. Here's a duo map of 700mb heights and winds, and NAM suggested radar reflectivity for 10pm Sunday night:
Courtesy Twister Data
The Storm Prediction Center is keeping any eye on our area as well, here's their current Day 3 Outlook including Bowling Green in the Slight Risk area:
Day 3 Convective Outlook Courtesy NOAA SPC
Regardless, thunderstorms are expected Sunday, some of which will be severe. Please pay attention to the weather and exercise common sense and weather safety when necessary. And of course, stay tuned here for updated forecasts as time goes on as they will change.

That sums it up for now. Be sure to stay up to date with all your real time weather info @WxOrNotBG on Twitter. Have a great Friday!

Thursday, July 24, 2014

Pleasant Days Ahead

Today 7/24 – Mostly Sunny, Pleasant – High 81º / Tonight – Mostly Clear, Cool – Low 59º

3pm 81º - 6pm 79º - 9pm 72º - 12am 65º - 3am 61º - 6am 59º

The surface cold front that brought plenty of showers and storms across the Commonwealth has finally exited the region. A big difference can be felt when stepping outside as cooler and less muggy conditions have taken over Bowling Green, KY.

We can thank the surface high pressure that has situated itself over the Great Lakes Region for the cool down. For the remainder of this afternoon, look for mostly sunny skies to take over as highs warm into the lower 80’s. This feature will begin shifting southeastward tonight as mostly clear and cool conditions settle in. Lows tonight will dip into the upper 50’s.
WPC Forecast Surface Map. Valid For Thursday 7pm.
WPC Forecast Surface Map. Valid For Thursday 7pm.
Fri – Mostly Sunny; Warmer – High 86º / Fri Night – Partly Cloudy; Comfortable – Low 66º

As we look to wrap up the work week, things will do so on a nice note. Surface high pressure will continue its southeastward path from the Great Lakes Region into the Ohio Valley while controlling our short term forecast. However, winds will begin shifting back from our south explaining the temperature increase we’ll see.

Nonetheless, highs will reach the mid 80’s with dewpoint temperatures in the upper 50’s, low 60’s. Despite the higher thermometer readings, our end to the week will remain pleasant as the muggy conditions hold out one more day. Our weather will remain quiet into Friday night as lows dip into the mid 60’s under partly cloudy skies.

 That’s worth celebrating about…

Sat – Mostly Sunny; Hot – High 92º / Sat Night – Mostly Cloudy; Sct’d Storms – Low 73º

Well, if you missed the heat and humidity, don’t worry because it abruptly returns by Saturday. The continued southerly flow will pump in plenty of moisture and warmth back across southern Kentucky as the warm front overtakes the Commonwealth. While much of the day looks to remain dry, showers and storms will increase into Sunday as an approaching frontal boundary gathers steam across the northern Central Plains.
WPC Forecast Surface Map. Valid For
WPC Forecast Surface Map. Valid For Saturday 7am.
The latest model guidance has slowed the progression of the frontal passage as Sunday looks to be the best time (through the weekend) for storms. Overall, Saturday will feature warm and muggy conditions with highs soaring into the low 90’s. Clouds will increase Saturday afternoon leading to mostly cloudy skies by Saturday night. Rain chances ramp up starting Sunday morning.

That does it for now, folks. Be sure to stay up to date with all your real time weather info by following @WxOrNotBG on twitter. Get out and enjoy this wonderful weather!

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Strong Storms Possible Today

Today 7/23 - Scattered Strong Thunderstorms - High 94° / Tonight - Scattered Thunderstorms - Low 66°

A cold front will march southward across the region throughout the day. This will enhance the lift in the region. With a warm, moist airmass in  place, conditions will be right for some strong thunderstorms to form throughout the day. Some of the storms may pulse up to severe due to the strong instability that will be in place. The main hazard will be damaging wind gusts, heavy rain, and vivid lightning.
SPC Severe Damaging Wind Outlook - Valid Today - NOAA SPC
SPC Severe Damaging Wind Outlook - Valid Today - NOAA SPC
Thunderstorms will continue overnight until the cold front moves south of the region. When that happens we will begin to dry out. Lows will be in the mid 60s across the area.

Thursday 7/24 - Partly Cloudy - High 81° / Thur Night - Partly Cloudy - Low 57°

Much better weather is in store for our Thursday as that cold front moves well to the south of the region. Conditions will be cooler and drier. High temperatures in the afternoon will feel rather nice. Expect a high of around 81°. Partly cloudy skies will remain in place over the region.

Overnight lows will dip into the upper 50s as conditions may clear out just a bit. Sounds like a good night to build a fire and have a good time with some friends. Just use your brain, and don't try to impress anyone...
Friday 7/25 - Partly Cloudy - High 88° / Fri Night - Partly Cloudy - Low 64°

Yes! Friday's forecast is in sight! High pressure will continue to work into the region from the north on our Friday. This will help keep conditions dry across the area, so we'll stick with partly cloudy skies, especially in the afternoon hours. Our high temperatures will rise a bit into the mid to upper 80s, however it will still feel pretty nice out there.
WPC Forecast Frontal Positions - Valid Wednesday Morning - NOAA WPC
WPC Forecast Frontal Positions - Valid Wednesday Morning - NOAA WPC
Lows will be in the mid 60s under partly cloudy skies overnight. If you're not outside, you're doing it wrong. Period.

That will wrap up this post. Be sure to monitor the weather this afternoon in the case of some strong to severe thunderstorms. You can always follow @WxOrNotBG for the latest weather info. Have a great day!

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Storm Chances Return

Today 7/22 - Partly Cloudy - High 93° / Tonight - Partly Cloudy - Low 72°

An upper level ridge will continue to nudge into the region today. This will provide a chance for the heat to strengthen its grip. More humid conditions are expected today as well. You can thank a slight southerly wind for that. 

Expect highs right around 93° under partly cloudy skies, a stray thunderstorm can't be ruled out as well.
We'll see pretty mild conditions overnight. Lows will be right around 72° under partly cloudy skies once again.

Wednesday 7/23 - Scattered Thunderstorms - High 93° / Wed Night - Scattered Thunderstorms - Low 67°

A cold front will work into the region on Wednesday. This will provide some lift to the region. With the atmosphere already being fairly saturated, some scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday. Some of these storms may evolve into a cluster, given the moderate amount of instability in the atmosphere. Thus, we can't rule out some strong to severe thunderstorms. The main hazard will be damaging wind gusts.
SPC Severe Storm Outlook - Valid Tuesday - NOAA SPC
SPC Severe Storm Outlook - Valid Tuesday - NOAA SPC
On Wednesday night, you can expect the thunderstorms to slowly diminish as the front slides to our south. You can expect to see a low around 67°.

 Thursday 7/24 - Partly Cloudy - High 83° /  Thurs Night - Partly Cloudy - Low 62°

On Thursday, drier and cooler air will filter into the region behind the cold front. The forecast should remain dry, with partly cloudy skies. Highs will feel nice after the string of 90° days. A high temperature of around 83° can be expected. We certainly hit the brakes on the hot weather...
On Thursday night, we'll see our lows dip down quite a bit due to decreasing cloud cover and cooler air. Expect partly cloudy skies with a low of 62°.

Be sure to stay updated with the latest weather info by following @WxOrNotBG on Twitter. Thanks for checking out the blog!

Monday, July 21, 2014

The Heat Returns...Ughhh

Today 7/21 - Partly Cloudy - High 90° / Tonight - Partly Cloudy - Low 69°

Welcome to Monday. We'll see a return of some warmer weather as higher pressure continues to work into the region. We shouldn't expect much in the way of clouds or precipitation because of a lack of a lifting mechanism, despite pretty humid conditions. Expect highs to be around 90°, under partly cloudy skies.

Tonight, a broad area of high pressure will continue to move toward the region, keeping us rather warm and humid. Lows will be in the upper 60s across the region, under partly cloudy skies.

Tuesday 7/22 - Partly Cloudy - High 91° / Tue Night - Partly Cloudy - Low 71°

On Tuesday, a bit more moisture will return into the region. This will cause a just a tad more in the way of clouds to build. We're still not finding a forcing mechanism, besides perhaps an outflow boundary from a dying thunderstorm complex. Isolated thunderstorms may be possible, however we'll stick with partly cloudy skies for now. Highs will be in the low 90s. Time to get back in the water!
Expect a general decrease in any thunderstorm activity in the overnight hours as we lose energy from the sun. Lows will be in the lower 70s with partly cloudy skies.

Wednesday 7/23 - Afternoon Thunderstorms - High 94° / Wed Night - Scattered Thunderstorms - Low 71°

On Wednesday, a more substantial lifting mechanism will work into the region. This will be in the form of a low pressure system and its attendant cold front. This will work in from the northwest throughout the day, so we'll expect thunderstorms to form in the afternoon hours. Highs will be in the mid 90s, so take it easy out there.
WPC Forecast Frontal Positions - Valid Wednesday Morning - NOAA WPC
WPC Forecast Frontal Positions - Valid Wednesday Morning - NOAA WPC
Thunderstorms will likely increase in coverage in the evening hours as more upper level support enters the region. Scattered thunderstorms appears likely across the region. Lows will be in the low 70s.

Be sure to follow us on Twitter @WxOrNotBG. Thanks for checking the forecast, and have a great day!