Monday, September 1, 2014

Labor Day Weekend Outlook

Today 9/1 - Isolated Thunderstorms - High 90° / Tonight - Partly Cloudy - Low 71°

Happy Labor Day everyone! It looks like the weather will be pretty nice outside. With that being said, there is a chance of some isolated showers and thunderstorms. This will be due to the warm, moist airmass in place across the region. Isolated morning thunderstorms could also push out some outflow boundaries during the morning hours which could create lift for more thunderstorms to form.
Simulated Radar - Valid 1 PM Monday - weatherbell graphics
Simulated Radar - Valid 1 PM Monday - weatherbell graphics
Because the above variables are, well variable, we'll stick with isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon hours. The wind will be breezy at times with speeds around 10 mph possible out of the southwest. Highs will be right around 90°.

Any thunderstorms that do form should generally decrease in coverage and intensity after sunset. Partly cloudy skies will accompany the overnight hours with a low around 71°.

Tuesday 9/2 - Scattered Thunderstorms - High 87° / Tue Night - Scattered Thunderstorms - Low 70°

A cold front will spark off thunderstorms to the west of the region on Monday night. The remaining storms will move east into the region in the early morning hours of Tuesday. Thus, a few thunderstorms will be possible in the morning hours. After that, skies should begin to clear a bit. As the aforementioned cold front approaches, more thunderstorms will likely fire across the region in the afternoon and evening hours.
WPC Forecast Frontal Positions - Valid Tuesday AM - NOAA WPC
WPC Forecast Frontal Positions - Valid Tuesday AM - NOAA WPC
Precipitable Water values will be pretty high across the region. In other words, the airmass in place is a very moist one. This will cause some of the thunderstorms to produce heavy rain across the region. With already waterlogged surface soil, some flash flooding is possible in those places with drainage issues.
Hi-Res NAM Forecast PWAT Values - Valid 4 PM - weatherbell graphics
Hi-Res NAM Forecast PWAT Values - Valid 4 PM - weatherbell graphics
Outside of the thunderstorms, we'll go with a high of 87°. This is a few degrees shy of today due to the increased cloud cover and outflow from thunderstorms cooling off the region. Thunderstorms could continue into the overnight hours with a low around 70°.

Wednesday 9/3 - Isolated Thunderstorms - High 88° / Wed Night - Partly Cloudy - Low 71°

The cold front will continue to move across the region on Wednesday morning. This means thunderstorms and showers will likely start off the day, however conditions should begin to clear out behind the front. We'll see drier air filter into the region, which will make conditions feel much nicer outside. Highs will be around 88°.
Wednesday night will bring drier conditions to the region. Under partly cloudy skies, you can expect a low around 71° in the Bowling Green area.

That should wrap up this post. Be sure to check out @WxOrNotBG for all the latest weather details. Have a great Labor day!

Friday, August 29, 2014

Rain Chances Increase This Weekend

Today 8/29 - Mostly Sunny & Isolated T’Storms – High 92° // Tonight – Partly Cloudy – Low 68°

6am 71º – 9am 78º – 12pm 87º – 3pm 92º – 6pm 84º

Good Friday morning everyone! Looks like we survived another frog strangler yesterday afternoon, Bowling Green picked up 1.16" of rain officially, putting us a hair away from having our all-time wettest August. Honestly, I'd be surprised if we didn't achieve that as more rain chances are in the forecast.
Here's the surface map for today at 1pm:
Courtesy NOAA WPC
Other than a stray shower or thunderstorm, the weather for today looks pretty good. Guidance is suggesting a dip in the dewpoint values in the afternoon and evening, and hopefully a break in the mugginess that actually happens. Expect a high in the low 90s and mostly sunny skies.

Overnight looks good also, lows in the upper 60s with calm conditions expected.

Saturday 8/30 - Scattered Thunderstorms – High 87° // Saturday Night – Scattered Showers & T'Storms – Low 72°

Looks like the start of the weekend is going to bring in some good chances for precipitation as a trough axis positioned to our west is aiding southerly flow and jet stream dynamics to support thunderstorm development. Be prepared for the wet stuff on Saturday. If it does, we'll just have to embrace it.
Looks out for scattered showers and storms and highs in the upper 80s Saturday.

Saturday night will bare watching with rain and thunderstorms likely, watch the radar and bring an umbrella if you're out and about. Lows will fall into the low 70s.

Sunday 8/31 - Scattered Thunderstorms – High 82° // Sunday Night – Scattered Showers & T'Storms – Low 72°

Much of the same for Sunday weather wise. This trough will continue to support lift and southerly flow, rain and thunderstorms will be likely as a result. Timing and where exactly will just have to play out.
Expect highs in the low 80s with clouds dominating our skies. Here's a look a the trough causing all our problems for the weekend as GFS sees it:
Courtesy Twister Data - Valid at 1pm Sunday
The jet stream seems to be making a bit of a return here and pushing the upper ridge eastward and out of the region. A relief from the heat but the trade off will be rain.

That sums it up for now, folks. Be sure to stay up to date with all your real time Bowling Green weather info @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on Twitter. Have a great Friday!

Thursday, August 28, 2014

Broken Record Forecast

Today 8/28 – Mostly Sunny; Isolated PM Thunderstorms– High 92º / Tonight – Partly Cloudy; Mild – Low 71º
6am 72º - 9am 83º - 12pm 89º - 3pm 92º - 6pm 87º

Good morning, temperatures are currently in the lower 70s across southern Kentucky with partly cloudy skies. Today's weather will feature more heat and humidity...I know, it's getting old.
Temperatures will rise into the lower 90s this afternoon with dew points around 70º making it feel muggy. A very weak cold front will move south across the state today although it will not This front will be a boundary that will serve as a focal point for some convection to fire along later today . Once the atmosphere becomes unstable this afternoon, we will see a few pop-up storms that will produce brief downpours and frequent lightning. Not everyone will see rain, but don't be surprised if you get caught in a quick downpour.

Any ongoing thunderstorm activity should diminish this evening as the front sinks just south of the area and we lose daytime heating. Expect another muggy night tonight with temperatures in the lower 70s.

Fri – Mostly Sunny; Hot & Humid – High 92º / Fri Night – Partly Cloudy, Warm – Low 70º

An area of low pressure moving into the Great Lakes region will provide the upper-level forcing to push the cold front from today back north tomorrow as a warm front. This means we will see winds turn to the south  and pull in warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures will reach the lower 90s today under partly cloudy skies. There could be a pop-up thunderstorm that fires along the warm front during the afternoon, but will keep the forecast dry for now.

If you are heading out to Western's first football game tomorrow night the weather looks warm, but pleasant. Temperatures will cool down into the 70s tomorrow night with any thunderstorm activity diminishing after sunset.

Sat – Mostly Sunny; Isolated Thunderstorms – High 89º / Fri Night – Partly Cloudy, Sct'd Thunderstorms – Low 71º

A shortwave disturbance will bring a slightly better chance for showers and storms this weekend. We will remain hot and humid on Saturday, but look for some isolated thunderstorms by late in the afternoon. Southerly winds will have helped push precipitable water values above 2 inches, so storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall.

A nocturnal low-level jet will help to organize precipitation coverage overnight, and we will see scattered showers and thunderstorms. Expect rainfall totals less than a quarter inch across southern Kentucky, but locally higher amounts are possible in thunderstorms. Here is the latest QPF map from the WPC for Saturday, notice the heaviest rainfall is forecast to stay west of here.


Rain chances look to continue through the weekend, and early indications show we could be dealing with some rain chances on Labor Day. That's all I've got for this morning. Stay up to date with the latest real-time weather updates by following @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on Twitter.

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Same Weather, Different Day

Today 8/27 - Partly Cloudy - High 91° / Tonight - Mostly Clear - Low 72°

I bet you can guess what the forecast will be like if you've been reading the posts. Yep, that persistent upper level ridge will keep conditions hot and muggy across the area. We will see a cold front move southward towards the region throughout the day. However, this will offer nothing more than a breeze to south central Kentucky. You can expect partly cloudy skies with an afternoon high of 91°. A stray storm chance is possible, but not expected.
WPC Forecast Frontal Positions - Valid Thursday Morning - NOAA WPC
WPC Forecast Frontal Positions - Valid Thursday Morning - NOAA WPC
Tonight will bring pretty muggy conditions to the area. Clouds will decrease after sunset, however temperatures will only drop to around 72°. Patchy fog will also be possible.

Thursday 8/28 - Isolated Thunderstorms - High 90° / Thur Night - Partly Cloudy - Low 70°
On Thursday the strong upper level ridge that has been in charge of the weather for the entire southeastern United States will begin to move to the southeast. This may help thunderstorms fire since we are in a well established warm, moist environment. Thunderstorms should remain relatively isolated in nature and will occur during peak heating. You can expect a high around 90° on Thursday afternoon. Not a bad forecast, we'll certainly welcome the rain!
Thunderstorms should quickly die off after sunset as we lose heating from the sun. You can expect partly cloudy to mostly clear skies overnight with a low around 70°.

Friday 8/29 - Partly Cloudy; Hilltopper Football - High 93° / Fri Night - Mostly Clear - Low 71°

We'll see those thunderstorm chances continue to diminish on Friday. Drier air will begin to work into the region on Friday from the southwest. This will eliminate rainfall chances for the day. Conditions will remain pretty hot out there though. You can expect partly cloudy skies with a high of 93°.

Partly cloudy skies in the afternoon and evening hours will give way to mostly clear conditions overnight. Lows will be right around 71°. What more can you ask of for the first WKU Football game? T-O-P-S  TOPS!  TOPS!  TOPS!
That should wrap up this post. Be sure to get all the weather deets by following @WxOrNotBG on Twitter. Have a great day!

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Few Storms Today?

Today - Partly Cloudy - High 91° / Tonight - Mostly Clear - Low 70°

Our upper level ridge that has dominated our weather over the past several days will continue across the region. Some indications are that it will actually begin to strengthen. This will lead to suppression of rain chances and an increase in temperatures across the region. Partly cloudy skies should dominate the region with a high of 91°. No need for a scarf today!
Conditions should clear out some in the evening hours. Mostly clear skies can be expected across the region with low around 70°. Patchy fog may also be possible.

Wednesday - Partly Cloudy - High 92° /Wed Night - Mostly Clear - Low 71°

On Wednesday we'll have some false hope across the region. A cold front will move south towards the region throughout the day. However, this front will lose much of its punch the further south it goes. This is again due to the upper level ridge in place across the region. We're in the dog days of summer now. Partly cloudy skies will be in place across the region with a high around 92°. It'll be a good day to soak in the sun rays.
Rinse and repeat forecast for Wednesday night. You can expect generally clearing skies with a low around 71°.

Thursday - Isolated Thunderstorms - High 91° / Thur Night - Partly Cloudy - Low 72°

On Thursday the upper level ridge will begin to move to the southeast. This will open the door for a trough to begin moving into the region. This will help bring some precipitation chances back into the forecast. Thus, a few isolated afternoon thunderstorms will be possible during peak heating. Expect a high of 91°.
NAM Forecast 500mb Wind Speed - Valid Thursday Afternoon - College of DuPage
NAM Forecast 500mb Wind Speed - Valid Thursday Afternoon - College of DuPage
Any thunderstorms should die off rather quickly after sunset. Thus, you can expect partly cloudy skies overnight with a low around 72°.

That should wrap up this post. Be sure to check out @WxOrNotBG for the latest weather details.