Thursday, January 29, 2015

Rain Chances Today

Today 1/29 - AM Showers; Mostly Cloudy; Breezy - High 53° / Tonight - Mostly Cloudy - Low 30°

Showers are moving across the region as we wake up this morning. The latest high res models suggest showers could last through 8 AM or so.

These showers will form in response to a cold front moving across the region throughout the day. With the approaching cold front in place, southerly flow will really amp up, creating winds that will howl at 15-25mph through much of this Thursday.
HRRR Simulated Radar 3 AM to 8 AM
HRRR Simulated Radar valid 3 AM to 8 AM
Conditions should dry out as the cold front passes to our east early this afternoon. With that being said, I think we'll be stuck with cloud cover for much of today.

Highs look to be around 53° by around noon. Temperatures will likely fall during the afternoon hours, so be sure to have the jacket ready on the commute home.

Mostly cloudy skies will continue into tonight. A few flurries may be possible from time to time. Lows will be right around 30°.

Friday 1/30 - Partly Cloudy - High 37° / Fri Night - Partly Cloudy - Low 25°

Friday will bring clearing skies to the region, especially during the afternoon hours. The clearing skies will be due to some high pressure moving in from the north. Northwest flow at the surface and aloft will keep temperatures chilly though despite the sunshine. Afternoon highs will get to 37°.
Nope, no jokes here - h/t
Nope, no jokes here - h/t
Friday night will bring more partly cloudy skies to the region as well as lows in the mid 20s.

Saturday 1/31 - Showers - High 42° / Sat Night - Showers/Wintry Mix - Low 33°

Saturday will bring another weather disturbance to the region. This time it looks like moisture will overspread the region as low pressure develops to the southwest. A quiet morning will give way to some afternoon showers. The rain really looks to set in the region from then on. Highs will be in the low 40s.
NAM Model Says It's a rainy Saturday... - College of DuPage
NAM Model Says It's a rainy Saturday... - College of DuPage
Saturday night will continue the chance for a good soaking rain. However, with temperatures falling, a few snowflakes or sleet pellets cannot be ruled out from time to time. If temperatures fall a bit more than expected, then icing could occur. However, I'm not too concerned right now, so monitor subsequent forecasts.

It looks like all the fun might occur on Sunday. The temperature profile for Bowling Green looks fairly decent for some wintry precipitation. However, it's hard to get excited for a system in the 4 to 5 day range because of the variability in the models lately. If it were up to me, I'd like to see this setup when we're only a couple days out to really begin to get excited. It's just something to monitor in the meantime.

Thanks for stopping by the blog. As always be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG for the latest weather information. Have a great day!

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Sunny Today; Rain Thursday

Today 1/28 - Mostly Sunny - High 44º / Tonight - Clouds Increasing; Chance of Rain Late - Low 37º

Good Wednesday morning, Bowling Green! For those of us back here at WKU and for all of you trying to make it through the workweek, it's hump day!
Happy Dance
That's not the only reason to be excited today, however. The sunshine is back. Yes, that bright, fiery ball of gas will be making an appearance, along with some blue sky today. Reason this is so? 

High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will be moving eastward across the region, allowing for mostly sunny skies. This will definitely be a nice change of pace from the cloudy days we've come to know this winter in Bowling Green. Highs will be close to the seasonal average, with temperatures in the mid-40s.
Wed Noon
WPC Surface Map, Valid Noon Wednesday, via NOAA
High pressure will move off toward New England this evening, making way for the next system to affect our area. A low pressure system currently situated in the Upper Great Plains will be tracking eastward towards Kentucky, bringing an increase of clouds ahead of it. 

We will hit our low temperature early on in the night, as temperatures will increase after midnight due to warm air advection ahead of the low pressure center. Lows look to remain in the mid to upper-30s for tonight.

Thursday 1/29 - Scattered Showers; Breezy - High 50º / Thursday Night - Chance of Showers Early - Low 29º

As the low pressure system continues to track eastward toward the Great Lakes, light precipitation will fall beginning early Thursday morning. Temperatures will be fairly warm Thursday, with a high around 50°, thanks to southerly winds. A cold front will swing through Thursday afternoon, causing winds to shift to the northwest and cooler temperatures flow in behind. Winds up to 15 mph are expected.
Thursday 6
WPC Surface Map, Valid 6 AM Thursday, via NOAA
As precipitation ends Thursday evening and colder temperatures filter in, there is a slight chance that lingering precipitation may transition to snow late. No significant accumulation is expected. Temperatures will fall into the upper 20s/lower 30s Thursday night.

Friday 1/30- Mostly Sunny - High 39º / Friday Night - Partly Cloudy; Colder - Low 25º

High pressure makes a return on Friday, allowing mostly sunny skies and dry conditions to prevail once again. Temperatures will remain fairly chilly, as cold air and winds from the northwest continue to flow and prevent highs from making it out of the upper 30s. Lows will bottom out at around 25° Friday night.

Next chance of precipitation comes into play Saturday night and into Sunday.

That's all I've got for now. Make sure to follow @WarrenCountyWX and @WxOrNotBG for the latest weather info!  Have a great day!

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Boring, Dreary Forecast In Store

Today 1/27 - Cloudy "Blerg" - High 36ºF Tonight - Mostly cloudy - Low of 25ºF.

Well, in contrast to last night's snowfall, today should be a quieter. We saw total snow accumulations ranging from a nice dusting to ~1.5", which boded very well with our forecast from yesterday.  The highest totals were actually reported from downtown Bowling Green, stretching northwest in a narrow band into Butler County.

It's worth noting that lingering flurries and what's known as freezing drizzle has created some travel issues this morning.  The National Weather Service has a Traveler's Advisory in effect for the entire area until 9am
A lot of low level moisture will hang around this morning, as northerly flow filters in behind the system that gave us the snow last night.

We'll see clouds hang tough throughout much of the day and into the overnight.  Temps look to stay cool because of this. We'll have north-northeast winds at the surface, which is why I expect temps to be limited to the mid 30s.
The HRRR showing NNE winds at the surface tomorrow, leading to cooler temps underneath the clouds. h/t
The HRRR showing NNE winds at the surface tomorrow, leading to cooler temps underneath the clouds. h/t
Other than that, things look to be rather lame.  Some models are depicting low level moisture scattering out of here earlier tonight.  

I don't necessarily buy this, and that's why I'm keeping temps (overnight lows) up a bit across the region.  If clouds hang around all night, look for temps to be in the upper 20s. If clouds clear out, look for temps to fall into the lower 20s.

Wednesday 1/28 - Mostly Sunny - High of 43ºF Wed Night - Increasing clouds; iso'd showers late - Low of 34ºF

Well, this looks like its gonna be the best weather day of the week. We'll be in between systems on "hump day," and we're looking at clouds FINALLY giving us a much needed break from their presence.
It's the return of dat sun, RON!  Get with it.

I think with the sunshine in place, and winds shifting to the south and southwest by the afternoon, we'll see temps climb into the low and maybe even mid 40s. Break out the shorts!
As we head into the overnight hours, clouds will likely increase very quickly as another clipper begins to slide southeast out of Canada. Southwesterly flow and clouds will help keep temps up out ahead of this system. 

Models are often times a bit too fast on the arrival of clipper systems (they move very quickly), and I would imagine that we end up seeing rain begin late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning.
Hi-res NAM seems a lot more realistic that smooth models with rainfall timing. h/t
Hi-res NAM seems a lot more realistic that smooth models with rainfall timing. h/t

Thursday: Cloudy, and morning showers. Breezy, with a high of 48ºF. Thur. night: Cloudy. Low of 29ºF.

Cloudy... AGAIN!?!
My reaction to cloudy days at this point. h/t
My reaction to cloudy days at this point. h/t
How often will the atmosphere keep doing this to us? It's gonna be another cloudy one with scattered showers across the area.  We all know what that means...
They're everywhere! h/t
They'l be everywhere! h/t
With a clipper system sliding to our north, our pressure gradient is looking to tighten just ahead of and right after an associated cold front.  This could lead to several hours of some gusty winds across the region, and that is something to keep an eye on as we head into Thursday morning across south central Kentucky
The Hi-res NAM is painting 15-20 mph sustained winds across the area Thursday morning. h/t
The Hi-res NAM is painting 15-20 mph sustained winds across the area Thursday morning. h/t
After the front passes, temps look like they will fall throughout the day and into the night, but overnight lows don't look to be too low. Temps will likely only fall into the upper 20s due to thick cloud cover residing over the region.

Well, that is all I have for this post! Between now and when I post again, I'll be watching and studying the major blizzard affecting the Northeast!

Make sure to follow @WxOrNotBG or the latest real-time weather information from across the region.  Have a great Tuesday, and thanks for reading!

Monday, January 26, 2015

Snow Chances AGAIN Tonight

 Today 1/26 – Cloudy, Iso'd Snow Showers; Breezy – High 35º / Tonight – Cloudy; Scat'd Snow Showers – Low 30º

6am 30˚ – 9am 31˚ – 12pm 32˚ – 3pm 35˚ –6pm 32˚

The very little precipitation southern Kentucky received overnight was in response to a surface cold front moving east across the state. The cold front is currently positioned in eastern Kentucky, along with the majority of the precipitation.

With this system sliding toward the east coast, cold air has caught up with lingering moisture over south central Kentucky. We can't rule out an isolated snow shower or two through mid-morning as a result.

Watch out for a few slick spots on the roads this morning, as temps remain below freezing. What a way to start the work week, eh?
Expect us to dry out completely by lunchtime. Skies will remain cloudy, with breezy northwest winds (10-20 mph) at the surface keeping our temperatures in the middle 30s, with wind chills in the 20s.

Scattered snow showers could re-enter the forecast late this afternoon, in response to precipitation forming along a weak boundary associated an area of low pressure in the upper Midwest. Once again, precipitation will be light, and looks to initially cause little to no impact, as our atmosphere remains dry.

The HRRR model below is valid for 6pm this evening, and likes the idea of scattered snow showers. It's at this point in time that we could see a few travel issues start to develop...
HRRR Simulated Radar Valid 6pm - WeatherBELL Analytics
HRRR Simulated Radar Valid 6pm - WeatherBELL Analytics
Our main focus is on another round of snow showers that look to accompany a clipper system during the predawn hours of our Tuesday, after our atmosphere becomes more saturated.  Any snow that falls with this disturbance will stick to roadways, thanks to surface temps below freezing.

The GFS model below is valid for midnight, and paints a nice picture of the low pressure "clipper" and associated snow that will dive SE across the area. This should give you a better idea of how this system will behave:
GFS Surface Pressure & Precip Model Valid 6am Tuesday - WeatherBELL Analytics
GFS Surface Pressure & Precip Model Valid 12am Tuesday - WeatherBELL Analytics
As far as accumulations are concerned, we could see a nice dusting - 1/2" on the ground, if anything.  A few lucky folks may rival an inch if the snow can start soon enough. Again, please exercise caution if you're traveling tonight/early Tuesday morning.

 Tuesday 1/27 – Mostly Cloudy; Iso'd Rain & Snow Showers – High 39º / Tue Night – Mostly Clear – Low 24º

Isolated snow showers will continue during the day tomorrow, thanks to a pesky boundary that will be slow to get out of our hair. Temperatures will be slightly warmer tomorrow, so any precipitation that may starts out as snow is expected to change over to a light mix of rain and snow during the afternoon. No accumulations are expected.

Weak upper-level ridging will increase tomorrow night which will be enough to push clouds out of our area. Low temperatures will fall into the lower to middle 20s under mostly clear skies.

Wednesday 1/28 – Sunny – High 43º /  Wed Night – Mostly Cloudy; Iso'd Showers Late – Low 39º

The Sun will make a brief appearance on Wednesday thanks to surface high pressure near the region. To our west, a weak area of low pressure will begin to form and southern Kentucky will experience warm air advection ahead of the low. Temperatures will reach the middle 40s making for a pleasant day.

Cloud cover will begin to increase again on Wednesday night as low pressure moves closer to the area. A few isolated showers will be possible after midnight and at this time model guidance is suggesting it will be too warm for any wintry weather.

That's all I've got for this morning. Be sure to check out @WxOrNotBG Twitter for real-time weather updates.

Friday, January 23, 2015

Snow Possible Today

Today – Rain/Snow – High 40º / Tonight – Mix/Snow Likely – Low 29º

6am 32º – 9am 36º – 12pm 38º – 3pm 40º – 6pm 36º

Everyone wants to know how much it's going to snow. The answer...probably not a lot. The storm moving into the area throughout the day will pack ample moisture, the problem is that temperatures will hover just above the necessary (freezing) mark for a legit, accumulating snow to take place...
"But I did my snow dance til 3am!!"

A light wintry mix of rain/sleet/snow has already started falling across portions of south central Kentucky this morning.  Temperatures are above freezing, and are expected to climb as the day progresses, resulting in a transition to all rain during the mid morning.  The latest HRRR simulated radar model below displays a wintry mix still lingering at 10am:

HRRR Simulated Radar Valid 10am - Weatherbell Analytics
HRRR Simulated Radar Valid 10am - Weatherbell Analytics

As we get into this afternoon and evening, temperatures will begin to tumble as a low pressure system to our southeast cuts a path north-northeast along the Atlantic Coast.  The NAM 10-meter wind speed model below helps illustrate this taking place.  Winds are flowing over Kentucky from the northwest = cold air will be advecting into the area.

NAM Wind Speeds Valid 12am Saturday - Weatherbell Analytics

I believe the following 4km NAM snowfall map shows pretty well what will happen tonight.

4km NAM Snowfall Through 6am Saturday - Weatherbell Analytics
4km NAM Snowfall Through 6am Saturday - Weatherbell Analytics

Many areas could potentially see a light coating of wet snow, perhaps up to a half inch, if anything at all.

What's a guy gotta do to get some snow around here??

If the snow can fall fast enough at the tail end of the precipitation band, some areas may pick up a bit more. Most of the snow that falls initially will struggle to stick to the warm ground. Road surfaces will remain in fairly good shape, even if snow starts to accumulate on the grass and elevated surfaces.

Overall: this will not be a major event and accumulations will be light at best. Because the ground is so warm and surface temperatures will remain right at/just above freezing, slick spots will be limited to mainly secondary and back roads. However, as with any wintry precip, be cautious heading out late tonight and tomorrow morning.

Saturday – Mostly Sunny – High 48º / Sat Night – Clear – Low 30º 

The sun will come out tomorrow and the temperatures will warm back up to near 50 degrees. That means any white stuff that does stick will be gone quick! Bad for the snow lovers, great for everyone else.
Sunday – Isolated Showers – High 52º / Sun Night – Isolated Showers – Low 36º

Rain creeps back into the area Sunday with a clipper system moving to our north. This clipper will feature mostly rain for our area with maybe a few isolated snow showers on the back side. Not looking like a big deal currently. The NAM shows the bulk of the precipitation staying toward the Cincinnati area.

NAM Simulated Reflectivity
NAM Simulated Reflectivity

That’s it for this morning. Be sure to stay up to date with all your real time weather info @WxOrNotBG on twitter. Have a great Friday!