Friday, April 17, 2015

Dry Today; Rain Returns Late Saturday

Today, 4/17 - Slight Chance of Showers Early - High 75˚ / Tonight - Partly Cloudy - Low 57˚

Good Friday morning, Bowling Green! We've officially made it to the end of yet another workweek, and a wet one at that. However, if you happened to check out the title for this forecast, some good news is on the way for Bowling Green weather.
giphy (17)
After a slight chance of isolated storms this morning, high pressure will allow drier air to filter in higher up in the atmosphere, suppressing our rain chances for the day and pushing most of them southward. Clouds will stick around for the bulk of the day, before decreasing during the late afternoon and evening hours. As conditions become mostly dry, temperatures will reach the mid-70s by the afternoon.
Friday 1PM
WPC Surface Map, Valid 1PM Friday, via NOAA
Skies look to remain partly cloudy overnight, with temperatures in the mid to upper-50s, which is about 10 degrees warmer than the average low for this time of year.

Saturday, 4/18 - Mostly Sunny - High 78˚ / Saturday Night - Showers and Storms Late - Low 62˚

The weather today is really just preparing for tomorrow, which is looking to be the best day of the week. High pressure at the surface, combined with what's known as ridging aloft, will allow conditions to remain dry as temperatures amp up close to the 80° mark. This is great news for WKU as the football team closes out spring practice with the Red-White game on Saturday.
7PM Saturday
WPC Surface Map, Valid 7AM Saturday, via NOAA
Unfortunately, this dry weather won't last long, as rain chances return late Saturday night. The low that has been spinning around the Four Corners region- and has made us susceptible too rain chances all this week- will finally be pulled back into the atmospheric flow, causing it to travel eastward.

Substantial lift and moisture will be transported into our area late Saturday into Sunday. Lows Saturday night will remain quite mild, with temperatures in the low-60s.
Precipitation Forecast, Valid 7PM Saturday - 7PM Sunday, via NOAA

Sunday, 4/19 - Showers & Strong Storms - High 78˚ / Sunday Night - Chance of Showers & Tstorms - Low 63˚

Shower and storm chances pick up Sunday morning, and will continue until the early afternoon, so be sure to bring your umbrella with you to church or during your Sunday afternoon errands.

It's worth noting that the ingredients will be in place for a few storms to potentially meet severe criteria.  The latest Convective Outlook from the SPC places all of south central Kentucky in a 'Slight Risk' for severe weather:
SPC Convective Outlook Valid Sunday
SPC Convective Outlook Valid Sunday
After a break in precipitation in the afternoon and evening, rain chances will come back into play Sunday night and will continue into Monday due to one last wave of this system. The low temperatures Sunday night will once again be mild - in the low-60s - before a cold front moves through early Monday.
7AM Monday
WPC Surface Map, Valid 7AM Monday, via NOAA
After the rain clears Monday, the first part of the week looks dry and seasonable, so let's hope that holds true.

As always, stay in touch with @WxOrNotBG for the latest real-time weather info. Have a great day!

Thursday, April 16, 2015

Rainnnnnnn Againnnnnnn

Today 4/16 - Scattered Thunderstorms - High 73° / Tonight - Isolated Showers - Low 62°

We'll likely be waking up to some showers and thunderstorms across the region this morning. Storms should remain non-severe, but may contain lightning, heavy rain and small hail. WKU students should take those umbrellas to 8 AM's just in case!

A break in the action is expected by the noon hour across south-central Kentucky. Some sunshine may peek through as the clouds begin to break apart. This will increase temperatures to around 73° in an already moist environment, which will result in increasing instability values across the region. Thus, some isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in the late afternoon hours.
Hi-Res NAM Simulated Radar - Valid 5 PM - WeatherBELL Analytics
Hi-Res NAM Simulated Radar - Valid 5 PM - WeatherBELL Analytics
Isolated showers will be possible tonight as most of the thunderstorm activity diminishes. Lows will be in the low 60s across the region.

Friday 4/17 - Partly Cloudy; Warm - High 79° / Fri Night - Partly Cloudy - Low 60°

Friday looks like a beautiful day across the region. A majority of those clouds should depart from the region leaving a very nice day on tap. Partly cloudy skies looks likely in the afternoon with highs topping just shy of 80°.
Friday night will bring partly cloudy skies to the region once more with lows in the low 60s.

Saturday 4/18 - Partly Cloudy - High 77° / Sat Night - Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms - Low 64°

Another nice day is on tap for Saturday. We'll once again be looking at partly cloudy skies across the region. However, a cutoff low will advect moisture and clouds into the region, thus more clouds are expected by the afternoon hours. Highs will be around 77°. Keep those umbrellas away for a majority of the day!
Saturday night will bring a large batch of moderate rain with some embedded thunderstorms. As of now, it appears that severe weather is not a concern. Lows will be around 64°.

That should wrap up this forecast. Be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG for the latest Bowling Green weather information. WKU students should follow @wkuCHAOS for weather observations from the Hill. Have a great day!

Wednesday, April 15, 2015

More Rain...

Wednesday – Chance of Showers – High 70˚ / Wed Night – Showers Likely – Low 60˚

By now you have to be getting tired of hearing "Chance of Showers" in the forecast. I hate to be the one to do this to ya, but today we will have a chance of showers. Much of the day will be free of rain after these early morning showers move out, but by late afternoon into the evening, spotty showers and storms return. 

The NAM 4 km shows the potential for some storms packing some heavy rain around midnight. For those that see heavy rain with a thunderstorm, Flash Flooding becomes a concern due to already saturated ground.
Weather Bell Analytics Nam 4 km
Weather Bell Analytics Nam 4 km
Thursday – Showers & Storms Likely – High 72˚ / Thurs Night – Isolated Storms – Low 58˚

Showers again on Thursday? Yea, you guessed it. While it won't be an all day rain event, spotty showers and storms will linger throughout the day. Your umbrella is becoming an accessory, embrace it.
Friday – Chance of Showers – High 74˚ / Fri Night – Chance of Showers – Low 60˚

Yes, we once again have a chance of showers Friday, however the sun will finally make an attempt to show it's face! Friday morning showers will clear out, leaving only isolated shower potential throughout the afternoon with thinning clouds. All of our thoughts about the absence of sunshine this week...
That's all for this morning! Be sure to check out @WxOrNotBG on Twitter for the latest real-time updates.

Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Flood Watch Early

Today: Nasty, with rain and clouds. High of 63ºFTonight: Just as nasty and cloudy. Low of 50ºF.

*Areal Flood Watch for Butler County thru 10am*

Well, we go from arguably the best day of spring (Saturday) to the worst day of spring thus far (today) in just a few short days. Thats why it's so fun to forecast around here! Kentucky is just great. The forecast today does involve rain, so....
Yeah. h/t
Yeah. h/t
Anyways, bring an umbrella. Thats all I can say. This is one of those days that you just kinda wanna stay in a take a nap, you know? Sadly enough, none of us can do that. SO at least you aren't spending another nice day at work! Rain will predominate the morning hours, with the heaviest of the wet stuff passing through during the morning commute.

The HRRR model below is valid for 10am, and shows lingering showers hanging around through this time, with the most intense precipitation well to our north.
HRRR Simulated Radar Valid 10am
HRRR Simulated Radar Valid 10am
There will still be some significant cloud cover across the region, acting to keep temperatures in the mid 50s. This will make almost everyone angry.
I understand, Tom. h/t
I understand, Tom. h/t
Overnight, it looks like clouds will hang tough throughout the region. Though rain will mainly be out of here, we should still see those tough clouds around. Look for lows to bottom out in the lower 50s.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. High of 70ºF. Wed. night: Partly cloudy. Low of 55ºF.

Well, after a cloudy and gloomy Tuesday, Wednesday does bring a lot of hope because Friday is in sight!

After you do a mini dance around your desk, you may as well get back to work. We should be looking at fairly nice conditions returning to the region, with clouds clearing out nicely and allowing the sun to get through to us to warm us up. Look for highs to end up in the upper 60s and lower 70s across the region with partly sunny skies.
NAM temperatures for Wednesday. h/t Weather Bell
NAM temperatures for Wednesday. h/t Weather Bell
Now, there is a threat for some showers and storms to fire up in the evening hours, so stay aware of that possibility.
Isolated storms are possible Wednesday evening,. h/t COD Weather
Isolated storms are possible Wednesday evening,. h/t COD Weather
Overnight Wednesday looks pretty good, with clouds coming in and out of the region, and lows ending up in the mid 50s. Look out for some showers and storms late.

Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy skies, with morning showers. High of 72ºF. Thur. night: Increasing clouds, with a low of 57ºF.

Thursday looks to be an interesting day, as it may start of pretty cruddy, but get a lot best as we go along. That sounds kinda nice, actually. We should see some morning showers moving through the areas as you get ready to go to work, but nothing too major.
NAM forecast radar. h/t COD Weather
NAM forecast radar for Thursday evening. h/t COD Weather
Things actually look to get fairly nice by the afternoon, with skies becoming partly to mostly cloudy and temps warming into the low to mid 70s across the region. This will give a nice break from the kinda awful weather of the previous two days.

Going into the overnight hours, things look good as we pass in between disturbances. Clouds should be increasing, however, ahead of the next system, and this will keep lows in the upper 50s.

Thats all I have for ya. The extended looks to feature even more chances at some rain and storms, but that is for another forecast! 

Be sure to check out @WxOrNotBG on Twitter for the latest real-time weather updates.

Monday, April 13, 2015

Rain Chances Thru Much Of The Week

Today 4/12 – Mostly Cloudy; Sct'd PM Showers – High 73° / Tonight – Sct'd Showers & Thunderstorms – Low 52°

6am 61˚ – 9am 66˚ – 12pm 70˚ – 3pm 72˚ – 6pm 67˚

Good morning, temperatures are currently in the lower 60s across southern Kentucky this morning. Mostly cloudy skies will give way to scattered rain showers this afternoon as a weak cold front approaches the state from the west.

As this cold front moves east, expect precipitation coverage to increase throughout the evening and a few rumbles of thunder will be possible as well.. High temperatures will be dependent on the extent of afternoon cloud cover but highs are expected to reach the lower 70s before precipitation enters the area.

Some of the heaviest rain will occur overnight as the best forcing will be along the front with isolated thunderstorms possible as well. Precipitation is expected to taper off near daybreak on Tuesday as the front passes east of southern Kentucky. Rainfall totals of 0.5-1″ are expected on Monday and Monday night with localized higher amounts possible.

Tuesday 4/14 – Mostly Cloudy; Iso’d Thunderstorms Early – High 69° / Tue Night – Mostly Cloudy – Low 51°

A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday morning as the front mentioned earlier pushes off to the east. Behind the cold front, we won’t see temperatures drop much as afternoon temperatures will still make a run at 70° although highs will once again depend on the extent of cloud cover. 

Models are in general disagreement as to tomorrow afternoon, with the GFS keeping precipitation in the area, and the NAM keeping the area dry. For now, expect high pressure to settle over the Ohio Valley and skies to become partly cloudy.
Predicted surface analysis valid at 7am CST tomorrow (Courtesy: WPC)
Expect mostly cloudy skies overnight on Tuesday with low temperatures dropping into the lower 50s. A stray shower or thunderstorm will also be possible overnight.

Wednesday 4/15 – Sct'd Showers & Thunderstorms – High 71° / Wed Night – Sct'd Showers & Thunderstorms – Low 58°

Unfortunately, rain chances will enter the forecast again on Wednesday as a shortwave disturbance ripples through a trough in the subtropical jet stream to our west. Just what we need, another rainy day...
Expect dry conditions during the morning hours on Wednesday under mostly cloudy skies. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage during the afternoon hours with the best coverage just to our east. Rainfall will continue overnight with rainfall amounts up to 0.5" possible. If you are looking for a break from our wet pattern, rain chances are unfortunately expected to stick around through the end of the work week.

That's all I've got for this morning. Be sure to stay dry this week and follow @WxOrNotBG on Twitter for real-time weather updates.