Friday, December 19, 2014

Calm Today, Rain/Snow Chances Tonight

Today – Partly Sunny– High 40º / Tonight – Slight Chance for Rain/Snow – Low 30º

6am 28º – 9am 33º – 12pm 38º – 3pm 40º – 6pm 35º

High pressure will dominate the region tomorrow, keeping things dry and even allowing the sun to come out during the morning hours. Clouds will filter back in during the afternoon ahead of the system moving to our south.
NWS Surface Map this Afternoon
NWS Surface Map this Afternoon
Saturday – Slight Chance for Rain/Snow– High 44º / Sat Night – Partly Cloudy – Low 30º

Saturday morning will start off cloudy with isolated flurries across the area. No accumulation is expected with this system as a bulk of the precip will remain far to our south. The sun will pop out from behind the clouds by early afternoon.

Here is a look at the NAM simulated reflectivity early Saturday morning. Not much in the way of precipitation at all with this system.
NAM Simulated Reflectivity Saturday Morning
NAM Simulated Reflectivity Saturday Morning
Sunday – Mostly Sunny– High 46º / Sun Night – Slight Chance for Showers – Low 36º

Mostly sunny skies are in store for your Sunday! That would make 4 days in a row of sunshine. More than we have seen in a while! To top it off, temperatures will warm into the upper 40's across the region.
mashable.com
That’s it for this morning! Be sure to stay up to date with all your real time Bowling Green weather info@WxOrNotBG on twitter.

Side Note: Wintry weather is looking possible Christmas week. Be sure to follow the latest updates from the blog to help with your travel plans.

Thursday, December 18, 2014

Wintry Mix Early

Today 12/18 - AM Wintry Mix; Cold, Cloudy - High 37° / Tonight - Partly Cloudy - Low 27°

We're waking up to a mix of sleet and snow across the region this morning.  Right now it appears that accumulations, if any, will remain minor due to the light nature of the precipitation (dusting - 1/4" of slush at best). We've already received reports of accumulations on elevated surfaces.

Although we may not receive much accumulation, slick spots will be inevitable during the morning commute across south central Kentucky.  We've already received reports of accidents this morning.  The vast majority of problems seem to be resulting from icy bridges and overpasses.

Sleet initially started to fall shortly after 2am this morning, and has been hit & miss ever since.  Again...with temps remaining below freezing until mid morning, please exercise caution on the early commute.  Below is a simulated radar image from the HRRR model.  It shows pockets of mixed precipitation still hanging around at 7am.
HRRR Simulated Radar Valid 7am - via weatherbell.com
HRRR Simulated Radar Valid 7am - weatherbell.com
Temperatures are expected to rise above freezing as we progress through the morning hours, which will help minimize any significant travel impacts as the day wears on.

We'll be stuck with clouds for most of the day and highs will likely only make it to around the 37° mark.  We can't rule out a stray snow shower or two moving through this afternoon.  With temps above freezing, impacts will be non-existent.

Clouds should move out of the region tonight as lows drop to around 27° across the region.

Friday 12/19 - Partly Cloudy- High 40° / Fri Night - Partly Cloudy - Low 34°

Friday should bring a calmer forecast to the region. With very little lift in the atmosphere, we can expect to see only partly cloudy skies throughout the day. Temperatures will remain on the chilly side as we'll only see highs reach the lower 40s across the region.

Partly cloudy skies will continue during the overnight hours with lows in the mid 30s.

Saturday 12/20 - Mostly Cloudy; Isolated Rain/Snow Showers - High 41° / Sat Night - Mostly Clear - Low 30°

The models have trended much further south in regard to the weekend storm system. With this being the case, I almost completely ruled out precipitation chances for Saturday. However, the European model still brings a bit of moisture to the north, which would be enough to spit some snowflakes and rain showers. Forecasters be like...
h/t reactiongifs.com
h/t reactiongifs.com
Confidence in this scenario is pretty low, so let's not even talk accumulations. All the models are consistent with drying us out in the afternoon hours. Thus, those mostly cloudy skies may break up a bit as the precipitation comes to an end.

Saturday night will bring mostly clear skies to the region with lows nearing 30° once more.

That should wrap up this forecast post. Be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG for the latest weather information.

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Snow Chances Tonight

Wednesday, 12/17: Partly Sunny and Chilly - High 40º / Wed. Night: Mostly Cloudy; Light Wintry Mix/Snow Late - Low 30º 

Today, high pressure could allow us a brief break from the clouds by the afternoon hours. This slight taste of sun will be a nice change from the dreary overcast skies that have been lingering due to the inversion we have become all too familiar with.

Temperatures will struggle to hit 40°, as cold air continues to filter in due to the passing of a cold front earlier this week as well as a secondary, reinforcing front that passed yesterday evening. Winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph. Cooler than normal temperatures may not be something that excites you, but hey, it's hump day!

h/t giphy.com

Clouds will be on the increase tonight as the next system in question makes its way into our region. With high pressure dominating, the low will stay south but will have somewhat of an effect on our weather here in Bowling Green.

This system will be a weaker disturbance with not much upper-level support, so precipitation accumulation will be small for our area. However, a light wintry mix can be expected after midnight. Cold air will cause precipitation to fall predominately as snow, but more of a mix could be present at first. Once again, little, if any, accumulation can be expected.
Precipitation Wednesday
WPC 24 Hour Precipitation Totals - Valid 6 AM Wed to 6 AM Thurs - NOAA
 

Thursday, 12/18: Mostly Cloudy; Light Snow/Mix Early - High 39ºF. Thurs. Night: Mostly Cloudy - Low 28ºF

Light snow is possible during the morning hours Thursday, with some slick spots present for the morning commute. Surface temperatures will soon warm above freezing during the mid-morning, so accumulation will once again remain minimal.

Temperatures will be very similar as to how they are today, with highs reaching around 40°. Clouds look to stick around (surprise?), which will help keep the high temperature below normal.
WPC Forecast Surface Map - Valid 6AM Thursday - NOAA
WPC Forecast Surface Map - Valid 6AM Thursday - NOAA
Thursday night looks to be mostly cloudy, with lows dipping just below 30°. Winds will remain fairly light from the north.

 Friday, 12/19: Mostly Cloudy - High 43º / Fri Night: Cloudy; Rain Likely - Low 33º

 As has been the talk of the weather world lately, another shot of wintry weather is possible this Friday and into Saturday. Moisture from the Gulf will begin to track northeastward Friday, flowing back into our area late that night. An upper-level disturbance in the atmosphere will accompany this moisture, allowing for precipitation to occur. During the day, temperatures will reach into the 40s, with winds from the north at 5 mph.

The strongest part of this upcoming system will remain to the south, with the low running across the southern Gulf states; therefore, Bowling Green will be on the northern end of any precipitation received. As per the current NAM model, temperatures at the surface will be flirting with the freezing mark around the time the other components come into play.

Temperatures look as if they will stay above freezing, allowing rain to dominate as the precipitation type. However, this system is still a few days out, so we will continue to keep a close eye on it.
WPC Forecast Surface Map- Valid 6AM Saturday - NOAA
WPC Forecast Surface Map- Valid 6AM Saturday - NOAA
 Make sure to follow @WxOrNotBG for the latest weather information! Thanks for reading!

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Rain & Snow Chances

Today, 12/16: Cloudy, with scattered drizzle and a high of 52ºF ↓. Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low of 35ºF.

Yes, today looks cloudy AGAIN. How many days in a row has that been? A million? I lost count a long time ago. Today will feature a weakening area of low pressure moving just to our north, and it will drag its cold front through. 

This will usher in a shot of cooler weather across the lower Ohio valley. Because this airmass will be infiltrating our area throughout the day, we will likely see our high while most of us are sleeping (not all of us; it is Christmas break you know).

Moisture looks to be trapped above us again, and we will see the continuance of the dreaded inversion across the area. This will help to keep clouds locked in across the area for most of tomorrow and into tomorrow night. Along with this, we will likely see some drizzle and light precip. Just enough to make you wonder why you got out of bed.

As we move into the overnight hours, we will more than likely see clouds stick around as that inversion doesn't look to go anywhere. This will keep temps from plummeting too much, but they will still fall into the low to mid 30s.

Wednesday, 12/17: Partly cloudy, with a high of 40ºF. Wed. Night: Becoming mostly cloudy, with a low of 30ºF
98fwbgus_init_2014121512
Forecast for 6 am Wednesday. h/t wpc.noaa.gov
 
Wednesday looks to feature a mix between clouds and sun. Though the low-level inversion will still be in place across the area, it is looking like we will be able to mix a lot of the low level moisture that was trapped there out. I feel like we have enough clouds to keep us cooler throughout the day, though. You know, I am actually a little excited that we may see the sun!

(h/t giphy.com)
I think that we go clear enough Wednesday Night to actually drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s before the next wave of clouds moves into the area in association with the next weather maker.

Thursday, 12/18: Cloudy, with rain or snow showers. High around 38ºF. Thursday night: Cloudy, with a chance of rain/snow showers. Low of 32ºF.
Initial forecast for what Thursday may look like/ h/t wpc.noaa.gov
Initial forecast for what Thursday may look like. h/t wpc.noaa.gov
This system presents me with the most difficult forecast of the period by far (it is the only sensible weather that will occur, really). It is weird, because the system doesn't really show up much in the mid-level flow overall; it just looks like a very small shortwave. All of the models have it, but I'm not sure that we will see any significant precip out of it.

This will definitely bring clouds to the region, though. Moisture looks to stream in at the mid-level beginning late Wednesday, and continuing Wednesday night and into Thursday. This will keep lows warm, and the high on Thursday cooler than it otherwise would be.

The biggest question with this system will be: will it snow? My answer is....maybe? The system looks to have a good amount of moisture return within the mid-levels of the atmosphere, but the system may be so brief that it has a hard time saturating the column to the surface. I believe we will see some light precipitation out of this, but nothing to geek out about.

(h/t giphy.com)

Thats all I have for this post! The weekend looks...interesting. I will leave it at that and save the fun explaining for my fellow writers! Make sure to follow @WxOrNotBG for the latest weather information!

Monday, December 15, 2014

Damp Start To The Week

Today 12/145– Mostly Cloudy; Scattered PM Showers – High 55° / Tonight – Scattered Showers – Low 46°

6am 42º – 9am 43º – 12pm 48º – 3pm 55º – 6pm 52º

Good morning, we are off to another mild start across the area today as low temperatures have bottomed out in the lower 40s this morning. We will see afternoon high temperatures reach into the middle 50s today under mostly cloudy skies.

Rain chances will increase later this afternoon as surface low pressure races northwest of Kentucky. Showers will begin to impact the area as a warm front lifts over southern Kentucky later today. Rain showers will continue overnight until a cold front sweeps across the state around daybreak tomorrow.  Once the rainfall is all said and done, precipitation totals for today and tonight look to be around 0.25-0.50".
fill_94qwbg
Day 1 QPF valid from 6am CST today until 6am CST Tuesday (Courtesy: WPC)
Tuesday – Mostly Cloudy; Iso’d Showers – High 50° / Tues Night – Partly Cloudy – Low 32°

Things will certainly feel cooler tomorrow after the cold front pushes east of Kentucky. Expect cloud cover to hang around throughout the day as surface winds turn to the west. High temperatures will struggle to reach 50° and there is the possibility of a few rain showers this afternoon thanks to some wraparound moisture.

Clouds will finally begin to clear out of the area by tomorrow night and low temperatures will drop to around freezing under partly cloudy skies.

Wednesday – Mostly Sunny – High 42° / Wed Night – Mostly Cloudy– Low 32°

Surface high pressure will settle into the Tennessee valley by Wednesday and this will result in mostly sunny skies during the day. High temperatures will only reach the lower 40s, but the sunshine will be welcomed.
tumblr_n236nb1c1J1s05hv8o1_250
h/t reactiongifs.com
Expect lows to reach the freezing mark once again on Wednesday night as clouds increase ahead of our next weather-producing system that could result in a few rain/snow showers on Thursday.

That's all I've got for this morning. Be sure to keep up with @WxOrNotBG on Twitter for real-time weather updates.