Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Snow Chances Tonight!

Today 11/26 - Partly Cloudy; Isolated Showers - High 47° / Tonight - Rain & Snow Showers - Low 32°

Today will be pretty good day for travel. We'll see some partly cloudy skies throughout the day. We'll even see some warmer air creep into the region in the mid to low levels, allowing for some highs in the upper 40s once again.

We should see an increase in cloud cover during the afternoon hours as a clipper system begins to move into the region. A few showers will also be possible. Below is the NAM model's interpretation of what radar could look like around 6 PM.
Hi-Res NAM Model Simulated Radar - Valid 6 PM -
Hi-Res NAM Model Simulated Radar - Valid 6 PM -
Cold air should move into the upper and mid levels of the atmosphere fairly soon, however surface temperatures should remain fairly warm. Thus, I think we'll see a mix of rain and snow showers throughout much of the evening and early overnight.

Eventually, this should transition to all snow as surface temperatures cool to around freezing. The snow may be heaviest during the early morning hours on Thanksgiving.
WPC Snow Probability
WPC Snow Probability
As far as accumulations, I don't think we'll see too much. Warm surface temperatures should cause most of the snow to melt on contact with the ground. Nevertheless, some elevated surfaces could receive a dusting of snow. The Weather Prediction Center seems to agree. According to them, Bowling Green has a 10-20% chance of seeing 1" of snow.

Thanksgiving 11/27 - AM Snow Showers; Partly Cloudy - High 39° / Thur Night - Partly Cloudy - Low 23°

Thanksgiving Day will likely start off with some lingering snow showers. The only travel concern should be slick spots on bridges and overpasses.

Moisture will be hard to come by after the morning hours. Thus, it looks like partly cloudy skies will be likely during the afternoon hours. Due to the colder air mass in place, a few flurries may be possible as well. Highs will be in the upper 30s. Now, where's that turkey?
Thursday night will bring partly cloudy skies. This will allow temperatures to drop steadily into the lower 20s, so be sure to bundle up if you're heading out.

Friday 11/28 - Partly Cloudy - High 42° / Fri Night - Cloudy - Low 36°

A no-worry forecast looks to be in the works on Black Friday, but you can still pretend the weather is bad and stay home with your family. Partly cloudy skies with a high in the low 40s seems likely.

Friday night will bring some clouds to the region, thus the low shouldn't bottom out like it will on Thursday night. Lows will likely be in the mid 30s.

Thanks for the read! Be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG or the latest weather information. Have a great day!

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Rain & Snow Chances In The Fold

Today 11/25– Mostly Sunny; Chilly – High 45° / Tue Night – Partly Cloudy; Cold – Low 28°

Today will bring some fairly nice conditions to the region. No doubt we'll be missing those warmer temperatures though. At least it's not as cold as it was last week. High pressure has settled into the region and will bring mostly sunny skies with it. Afternoon highs will likely reach 45°.

Tuesday night will bring partly cloudy to mostly clear skies to the region. This will let low temperatures drop into the upper 20s.

Wednesday 11/26– Increasing Clouds; Chilly – High 46° / Wed Night –  Rain/Snow Showers – Low 32°

Wednesday we'll see increasing clouds form out ahead of an advancing clipper system. This will lift a "warm front" through the region during the morning hours, however highs will still only make it to the mid 40s once again.
WPC Forecast Frontal Positions - Valid Wednesday AM
WPC Forecast Frontal Positions - Valid Wednesday AM
The clipper will take aim on the region during the evening and overnight hours on Wednesday night. Confidence is increasing that a mixed precipitation mode of rain and snow will be possible across the Bowling Green area. At this time, it looks like accumulations will be light, if any at all. Be careful if you're traveling though as some slick spots may develop as temperatures drop to the freezing mark.

Thanksgiving 11/27 - Partly Cloudy - High 40°  / Thur Night - Partly Cloudy - Low 23°

A fairly chilly day is shaping up for Thanksgiving unfortunately. The good news is that Thanksgiving does look pretty dry as high pressure moves back into place behind the exiting clipper system. Highs will struggle to reach 40°. It gives a whole new meaning to "cold turkey."

Lows on Thursday night will likely drop into the low 20s as we'll see partly cloudy skies.

That should wrap up this forecast. Be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG for the latest weather details. Have a good day!

Monday, November 24, 2014

Colder Weather Arrives

Today 11/24 - Windy; Isolated Showers; Dropping Temperatures - High 57° ↓ / Tonight - Windy; Partly Cloudy - Low 33°

Today will be quite windy throughout much of the day. The National Weather Service has hoisted a Wind Advisory until 6 PM this evening as wind speeds could gust is excess of 40 mph, with sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph possible. Be sure to tie up loose object or they may be scattered about. Certainly don't get caught off guard like this guy.
A cold front will drop out temperatures throughout the day as well. Yep, you'll be waking up to the warmest temperature of the day as temperatures will continue to drop through the afternoon hours. Temperatures around 3 PM should be around 47°. 

You may also have to dodge a few light showers here and there throughout the day.
Lows will drop into the low to mid 30s across the region as we begin to dry out. Winds will be dying down to around 10 mph during the overnight hours.

Tuesday 11/25 - Mostly Sunny - High 45° / Tue Night - Partly Cloudy - Low 28°

Those warmer temperatures we saw for the past couple days will be gone come Tuesday. The cold front certainly did some damage to the temperature department as we'll see highs in the mid 40s across the Bowling Green area, despite mostly sunny conditions.

Lows will dip into the upper 20s across the area as partly cloudy skies develop.

Wednesday 11/26 - Partly Cloudy - High 43° / Wed Night - Light Mixed Precip - Low 33°

Models have come in fairly good agreement that a clipper system may move into the region on Wednesday. This will likely produce some afternoon clouds, perhaps a few sprinkles, but nothing too concerning. Afternoon highs will climb into the low to mid 40s across the region.

A few models are on board with developing some light mixed precipitation across the region on Wednesday night. Some models keep this all snow, some make it mixed, others keep it to the north of the area. Basically, the confidence in this forecast is low due to model discrepancies. 

Overall, you can expect lows to be right around freezing with some form of precipitation possible. Stay tuned for more information, and don't freak out.

That should wrap up this forecast post. Be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX for the latest Bowling Green weather information. Have a great day!

Friday, November 21, 2014

Warm, Rainy Weekend On Tap

Today – Mostly Sunny – High 45º / Tonight – Cloudy – Low 38º

6am 24º – 9am 32º – 12pm 42º – 3pm 45º – 6pm 40º

Today will begin a nice little warming trend throughout the weekend. Skies will be mostly sunny with temperatures topping out in the mid 40's. Not too bad after the stretch we just had!
Saturday – Chance of Showers, Cloudy – High 56º / Sat Night– 50% Chance of Rain – Low 47º

The real warm-up comes Saturday into Sunday as we will be in the warm sector of this system moving into the Ohio Valley. Rain chances increase substantially Saturday night into Sunday morning as the Low pressure moves to our west.
NWS Surface Map Saturday Morning
Sunday – Rain – High 60º / Sun Night – Rain – Low 50º

Don't make too many outdoor plans for Sunday as heavy rain and a rumble of thunder are possible. Here is the latest forecasted precipitation from the Weather prediction Center. The heaviest rain will fall along the gulf, but a half inch to an inch cannot be ruled out from Saturday night into Sunday evening.
Weather Prediction Center Total Rainfall Sunday
Weather Prediction Center Total Rainfall Sunday
That does it for this morning, folks.  As always, stay in touch with @WxOrNotBGand@WarrenCountyWX on twitter for the latest real-time weather information.  Enjoy your weekend!

Thursday, November 20, 2014

Rain On The Way

Today 11/2- – Mostly Sunny; Chilly – High 39º / Tonight – Partly Cloudy; Cold – Low 23º

6 AM 26° – 9 AM 31° – Noon 35° – 3 PM 39° – 6 PM 33°

We are currently seeing another chilly morning in progress across southern Kentucky as temperatures are hovering in the upper 20s. Surface high pressure is situated just to our west and this will keep our weather fairly calm today.
Predicted surface analysis valid at noon today (Courtesy: WPC)
Expect high temperatures to reach the upper 30s under mostly sunny skies today. Skies will remain mostly clear overnight  as lows drop into the lower 20s.

Fri – Partly Cloudy; Warmer – High 45º / Fri Night – Mostly Cloudy; Few Showers (Late) – Low 36º

The upper-level trough that has been positioned over the eastern U.S. for the past ten days will finally kick east on Friday allowing for some warmer air to move into the area.
Easterly surface winds will turn to the south by later in the afternoon allowing for high temperatures to reach the middle 40s. As the trough kicks east, some divergence is expected in the upper levels of the atmosphere. This divergence will help cloud cover to increase by Friday evening, with a few showers possible overnight.

Sat – Mostly Cloudy – High 57º / Sat Night – Mostly Cloudy; Chance of Showers – Low 47º

Temperatures will keep rising on Saturday as warm air advection continues in southern Kentucky. Skies will be mostly cloudy during the day with high temperatures in the upper 50s. As of right now, we should stay dry during the day, but a stray shower cannot be ruled out.

Surface low pressure to our southwest will rapidly deepen and begin moving northeast by Saturday evening. A warm front will lift north over southern Kentucky and expect some shower activity to increase along this front Saturday night.

It is beginning to look like we will be dealing with some moderate to heavy rainfall on Sunday as models are in decent agreement that this area of low pressure will move just northwest of our area.

That's all I've got for this morning. For real-time weather updates be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG on Twitter.