Friday, July 3, 2015

Soggy Today; Hope For The 4th

Today 7/3 – Mostly Cloudy; Scat’d Showers & Storms – High 80 / Tonight – Mostly Cloudy; Scat’d Showers & Storms – Low 67

Good Morning and TGIF! We’ve been stuck in a soggy forecast for a while with hit-and-miss showers/storms, and it doesn’t look to change much for the Holiday weekend. We may catch a break on Saturday, just in time for all the cookouts and outdoor events – but we’ll talk a bit about that more in a second.
confused animated GIF
You heard me. (giphy.com)
A lingering low pressure system is going to result in scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the day today and into tonight. If you do get out, don't forget your umbrella, rain boots, rain coat, row boat...you get the picture.
Surface MSLP
Surface pressure valid 1pm Friday (owxdata.com)
Yesterday, a number of locations received ~1-2 inches of rain (Kentucky Mesonet) and new rain totals today are estimated to be around half an inch. Locations impacted by storms could see more. We’ll still be hovering around 80 degrees for the high temperature, so it will feel comfortable despite the rain.
Happy Parks And Recreation animated GIF
via giphy.com

 Saturday 7/4 – Partly Cloudy; Chance of Afternoon Scat’d Showers & Storms – High 82 / Saturday Night – Partly Cloudy; Chance of Scat’d Showers – Low 68

I know you all are wondering – is it going to rain on Saturday? Current models suggest slight rain chances in the afternoon hours as another low pressure system moves across Tennessee. We could see a little rain along the edge of the system throughout the evening. The majority of the day looks to be pretty great, though, with high temperatures in the low 80s and maybe a little sun peeking through.
Simulated Radar
Simulated Radar valid 7pm Saturday (weather.cod.edu)
Simulated radar for Saturday night shows some light showers south of the area. As hi-resolution model data becomes available for Saturday, we'll have a better idea of the amount and timing of any potential rain showers. Hopefully your fireworks won’t be rained out!
Fireworks animated GIF
via giphy.com


Sunday 7/5 – Partly Sunny; Isol’d Afternoon Storms – High 84 / Sunday Night – Partly Cloudy – Low 70

Sunday should be relatively calm with partly sunny skies and a chance for the typical pop-up thunderstorms in the afternoon hours. High temperatures will remain below average on Sunday but will be on the rise Monday and Tuesday. It looks to be a great finish to a three day weekend!
yes animated GIF
via giphy.com

As always, continue to follow @WxOrNotBG on Twitter for more updates.

Thursday, July 2, 2015

Rain Chances Continue

**Flash Flood Watch for Warren & bordering counties thru 7am Friday**

Today – Cloudy; Showers & Storms – High 80˚ / Tonight – Mostly Cloudy; Showers & Storms – Low 70˚

Howdy, south central Kentucky! Unfortunately, more rain is in the forecast for today and tonight. The cloudy skies and rain will keep temperatures relatively cool with highs near 80. Hey, I'll take anything under 90˚ in the summer. Rain totals are increasing and flash flooding could become an issue, so please be cautious on the roads!

Our best chance at rainfall will be thru the morning hours of today, thanks to a passing complex (blob) of showers and storms. We should see a lull in the wet stuff by early afternoon, with scattered redevelopment expected over the area between mid afternoon and early evening (3 - 8pm).
WPC Surface Map via NOAA, Valid 1PM 

For the overnight, temperatures will remain moderate, with lows near 70˚ under mostly cloudy skies. Yes, rain chances will continue, but should stop before before midnight. I would definitely bring an umbrella with you, but hopefully you won't need it all night!
thumbs up animated GIF
Via Giphy.com

Friday – Cloudy; Showers & Storms – High 78˚ / Friday Night – Mostly Cloudy; Sct'd Showers –  Low 69˚

Welp. I'm sure y'all guessed it, but there's more rain in the forecast. Again. Friday looks to be pretty wet, so bring an umbrella or rain jacket with you. However, some good news, temperatures will be pleasant with highs in the upper 70's under cloudy skies.
WPC Surface Map via NOAA, Valid 7 AM

For the evening, it looks like the start to this Independence Day weekend will be a wet one. Rain chances will diminish slightly by the evening, but bring an umbrella for sure! Lows will be in the upper 60's under mostly cloudy skies. So, in other words, Thursday and Friday look to be kinda yucky, but there's still hope! Saturday looks to be slightly less yucky... maybe.
jim carrey animated GIF
Via Giphy.com

Saturday – Mostly Cloudy; Showers & Storms – High 80˚ / Saturday Night – Mostly Cloudy; Sct'd Showers –  Low 68˚

Happy 4th of July, everybody! Saturday doesn't seem to be as much of a washout as previous days, so keep your fingers crossed! Again, temperatures will be reasonable with highs near 80 under mostly cloudy skies. Another warning, there could be a lot of rain in a very short amount of time, so please be careful out there. We don't need any accidents on this fun-filled weekend!
Rainfall Totals Thru Sunday Morning, Via NOAA

For your fireworks show, the rain chances will be less, but expect scattered showers to remain in the region. Rain and cloudy skies will cause temperatures to remain moderate with lows in the upper 60's. I'm sure hoping this rain will hold off, so we can all see some awesome fireworks in the evening. Hey, I hear that if you wave an American flag in the air and scream "Go USA," then all the rain chances disappear....

4th of july animated GIF
Via Giphy.com

Well, that's it for this forecast! Please be safe and smart through all this rain during the next few days! Go America!

Remember to stay in touch with @WxOrNotBG for the latest real-time weather info. Have a wonderful day!

Wednesday, July 1, 2015

It's Gonna Get WET

Today, 7/1 - Becoming Mostly Cloudy; Showers & Storms - High 81˚ / Tonight - Showers & Storms - Low 69˚

Good morning, and happy first day of July! The start of the month will definitely be a wet one for Bowling Green weather, with showers and storms expected for the remainder of the week. Sorry you all, I don't create the weather, I just help forecast it...

We're looking at mostly cloudy skies, cooler than normal temperatures, and lots of rain. If you're wanting some solid time to read a book or work on a puzzle, you've got it this week. A trough at the jet stream level, along with disturbances rotating through the area, will keep weather conditions wet.
Bowling Green Weather
WPC Surface Map, Valid 1PM Wednesday, via NOAA
As for today, temperatures look as though they'll make it to around 80° or so. We'll start out with some peaks of sun, but clouds will be increasing throughout the day. We may see some scattered showers and storms this morning, but our chances for rain will increase after about 1 o'clock, with temperatures decreasing due to the onset of the rain. These showers and storms will continue into the evening and the overnight hours.

Thursday, 7/2 - Cloudy; Showers & Storms - High 79˚ / Thursday Night - Mostly Cloudy; Chance of Storms - Low 69˚

Between Wednesday night and Thursday, some serious rainfall (and flash flooding) may be possible for Bowling Green weather... We're talking 2 or so inches over south central Kentucky thanks to this system. Thursday seems to be pretty much a washout, with showers and storms expected throughout the entire day.
Bowling Green weather
Quantitative Precipitation Map, Valid 7PM Wed - 7PM Thurs, via NOAA
Overcast skies and rain will keep temperatures below normal, with highs remaining in the upper 70s! That's about 10° off the normal high for this time in July. Rain will continue off and on Thursday night, with lows in the upper 60s.

Friday, 7/3 - Showers & Storms - High 79˚ / Friday Night - Mostly Cloudy; Chance of Storms- Low 67˚

Can you kind of predict what I'm about to say...?
gif2
via tumblr
Figured. Showers and storms will continue Friday, with heavier rain in the evening and overnight hours. Temperatures will skate along that 80° mark once again during the day, and drop into the upper 60s Friday night.

A look at the rainfall totals over the next few days is shown below.
Bowling Green Weather
Day 1-3 Quantitative Precipitation Map, via NOAA
This forecast map is valid between 7PM Tuesday night and 7PM Friday night. The majority of this rainfall is from the Wednesday night/Thursday system.

A look at your 4th of July forecast will be coming throughout the next few blog posts, so stay tuned! Sorry if my forecast put a damper on your day...

As always, stay in touch with @WxOrNotBG for the latest real-time weather info. Have a great day!

Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Rain & Storm Chances Continue

Today: Partly cloudy, with scattered storms in the afternoon. A few may be severe. High of 84ºF. Tonight: A few storms remaining, with mostly cloudy skies. Low of 65ºF.

Well, well, well. Looks like we are looking at a different pattern now!
h/t reactiongifs
h/t reactiongifs
After days of sweltering heat the past month, we are in a pattern that favors us seeing more thunderstorms and cooler conditions. Yesterday evening saw some of the benefits of that, with severe storms rolling on through the area. Before that, though, temps didn't even get that high!

Your Tuesday will see similar conditions prevail, with highs only reaching the mid 80s across the region.
h/t COD Weather
h/t COD Weather
We will likely see some scattered storms fire up into the afternoon as a weak boundary makes its way into a relatively unstable environment. This could lead to some stronger storms, and the SPC has placed us in a slight risk of severe storms for the day.
SPC Convective Outlook
SPC Convective Outlook
Be weather aware as you go out and about! Tonight will feature some isolated left over storms, and mostly cloudy skies.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with showers and isolated thunderstorms. High of 76ºF. Wed. night: Continued cloudiness, with showers and storms. Low of 67ºF.

Wednesday looks like a really, really good day to just stay inside and catch up on that book you said you'd read...
h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com
It just looks fairly nasty outside. There are gonna be a series of disturbances moving through the region that will spark up several areas of heavier rainfall that will move across the area. The model differ a bit on the track of those areas of rain, but generally speaking, we are likely to see some rain.
Rainfall for the next 7 days over the region. h/t WPC
Rainfall for the next 7 days over the region. h/t WPC
This will keep many of us only in the 70s for highs during the day! That is cause for celebration.
h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com
Going into the overnight hours, we will see the threat for rainfall continue, and skies staying mostly cloudy. Lows will end up in the upper 60s.

Thursday: Again, mostly cloudy. Threat for on and off rainfall and storms. High of 79ºF. Thur. night: Maybe a bit of a rain break, but remaining cloudy. Lows kept around 67ºF.

You can basically say the same thing about Thursday that we said about Wednesday. Terrific temperature wise, but kinda awful weatherwise. I mean, rain gets old after the first, second or third nap.

Again, we'll see the threat of rain, but the heaviest may stay to our south during most of the day. This still won't allow us to escape the clouds, and we'll likely remain locked in the upper 70s. A few may crack the 80s, but I don't see it as likely.
h/t COD Weather
h/t COD Weather
By this point, we will all want it to be sunny and hot again. Overnight, you'll see the continuation of clouds and isolated showers as lows only fall to the upper 60s.

Be sure to check out @WxOrNotBG for the latest weather info for around BG, and be sure to check back in for some looks at the 4th of July forecast! (Spoiler: it looks...eh)

Monday, June 29, 2015

Monday 6/29 - Scattered Thunderstorms - High 83° / Tonight - Partly Cloudy - Low 67°

We're currently waking up to some isolated showers across the region. This is in response to a weak impulse of energy embedded in the northwest flow aloft across the Bowling Green area. The northwest flow is well established and will stay in place for the entire forecast period. This will help keep highs in the 80s. Today's high is forecast to be 83°.
h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com
A few scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon. Most of the models are depicting a thin line of showers and thunderstorms developing to the north of the region, then moving to the south into the Bowling Green area. Given the chance of moderate instability, isolated strong to severe storms may be possible with large hail and damaging wind being the main threats, with a small chance of a tornado.

Thunderstorms should weaken this evening. Partly cloudy skies are in store overnight with a low around 67°.

Tuesday 6/30 - Isolated Thunderstorms - High 85° / Tue Night - Isolated Showers - Low 67°

The weak impulse of energy will be a bit less organized on Tuesday. This will lead to the formation of an area of broad low pressure to the north of the region. This should provide enough lift to cause a few isolated thunderstorms to develop after we reach a high of 85°. A few storms could be on the strong side once again.
h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com
Tuesday night will bring isolated showers to the region with a low around 67°.

Wednesday 7/1 - Scattered Showers - High 81° / Wed Night - Scattered Showers - Low 70° 

Another disturbance will form once again on Tuesday in the central Plains. This will move into Missouri on Wednesday. As the warm front of this weak are of low pressure lifts north through the region, a steady rain may develop across the region, with embedded thunderstorms. Highs will be in the low 80s. Due to the strong lift along the warm front, a few storms may be strong.
Wednesday Rainfall Totals - NAM Model - Twisterdata.com
Wednesday Rainfall Totals - NAM Model - Twisterdata.com
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into the overnight hours as the low pressure system tracks right over our area. 24 hour precipitation amounts may add up to 1.5-2" of rain. Lows will be around 70°.

That should wrap up this forecast. Be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG for the latest Bowling Green weather information.