Friday, November 21, 2014

Warm, Rainy Weekend On Tap

Today – Mostly Sunny – High 45º / Tonight – Cloudy – Low 38º

6am 24º – 9am 32º – 12pm 42º – 3pm 45º – 6pm 40º

Today will begin a nice little warming trend throughout the weekend. Skies will be mostly sunny with temperatures topping out in the mid 40's. Not too bad after the stretch we just had!
Saturday – Chance of Showers, Cloudy – High 56º / Sat Night– 50% Chance of Rain – Low 47º

The real warm-up comes Saturday into Sunday as we will be in the warm sector of this system moving into the Ohio Valley. Rain chances increase substantially Saturday night into Sunday morning as the Low pressure moves to our west.
NWS Surface Map Saturday Morning
Sunday – Rain – High 60º / Sun Night – Rain – Low 50º

Don't make too many outdoor plans for Sunday as heavy rain and a rumble of thunder are possible. Here is the latest forecasted precipitation from the Weather prediction Center. The heaviest rain will fall along the gulf, but a half inch to an inch cannot be ruled out from Saturday night into Sunday evening.
Weather Prediction Center Total Rainfall Sunday
Weather Prediction Center Total Rainfall Sunday
That does it for this morning, folks.  As always, stay in touch with @WxOrNotBGand@WarrenCountyWX on twitter for the latest real-time weather information.  Enjoy your weekend!

Thursday, November 20, 2014

Rain On The Way

Today 11/2- – Mostly Sunny; Chilly – High 39º / Tonight – Partly Cloudy; Cold – Low 23º

6 AM 26° – 9 AM 31° – Noon 35° – 3 PM 39° – 6 PM 33°

We are currently seeing another chilly morning in progress across southern Kentucky as temperatures are hovering in the upper 20s. Surface high pressure is situated just to our west and this will keep our weather fairly calm today.
Predicted surface analysis valid at noon today (Courtesy: WPC)
Expect high temperatures to reach the upper 30s under mostly sunny skies today. Skies will remain mostly clear overnight  as lows drop into the lower 20s.

Fri – Partly Cloudy; Warmer – High 45º / Fri Night – Mostly Cloudy; Few Showers (Late) – Low 36º

The upper-level trough that has been positioned over the eastern U.S. for the past ten days will finally kick east on Friday allowing for some warmer air to move into the area.
Easterly surface winds will turn to the south by later in the afternoon allowing for high temperatures to reach the middle 40s. As the trough kicks east, some divergence is expected in the upper levels of the atmosphere. This divergence will help cloud cover to increase by Friday evening, with a few showers possible overnight.

Sat – Mostly Cloudy – High 57º / Sat Night – Mostly Cloudy; Chance of Showers – Low 47º

Temperatures will keep rising on Saturday as warm air advection continues in southern Kentucky. Skies will be mostly cloudy during the day with high temperatures in the upper 50s. As of right now, we should stay dry during the day, but a stray shower cannot be ruled out.

Surface low pressure to our southwest will rapidly deepen and begin moving northeast by Saturday evening. A warm front will lift north over southern Kentucky and expect some shower activity to increase along this front Saturday night.

It is beginning to look like we will be dealing with some moderate to heavy rainfall on Sunday as models are in decent agreement that this area of low pressure will move just northwest of our area.

That's all I've got for this morning. For real-time weather updates be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG on Twitter.

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

A Slight Warm Up

Today 11/19 - Partly Cloudy - High 46° / Tonight - Partly Cloudy - Low 27°

We'll finally get some relief from the brutally cold temperatures today. We'll see a warm front associated with a low pressure system located to the north, move through the region. This will place us in a more southerly flow which will help those temperatures warm up a bit. You can expect partly cloudy skies with highs around 46°.
WPC Forecast Frontal Positions - Valid This Afternoon - NOAA WPC
WPC Forecast Frontal Positions - Valid This Afternoon - NOAA WPC
Partly cloudy conditions will continue in the overnight hours with lows around 27°.

Thursday 11/20 - Mostly Sunny - High 38° / Thur Night - Partly Cloudy - Low 25°

The reason for the lower temperatures tonight will be due to a passing cold front. The good news is the front will likely be dry, so we won't see any snow or precipitation associated with the front. However, it will do some damage to the temperature department as we'll only see highs just under 40° despite mostly sunny skies.

Partly cloudy conditions should return on Thursday night as lows drop into the mid 20s once more.

Friday 11/21 - Partly Cloudy - High 40° / Fri Night - Isolated Showers - Low 36°

High pressure will move into the region on Friday, so conditions should remain reasonably nice. It looks like we're stuck with the cool temperatures through Friday though. Highs will struggle to reach 40° under partly cloudy skies.
H/t Citytv
H/t Citytv
We'll seem some moisture creep in from the south during the overnight hours. This will increase cloud cover across the Bowling Green area, and we may even dodge a few rain showers during the late night hours. Lows will only drop off into the mid 30s.

That should wrap up this post. Be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG and for the latest weather information. Have a great day!

Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Chilly Weather In Store

Today 11/18 - Partly Cloudy; Cold - High 26° / Tonight - Partly Cloudy - Low 19°

6 AM 15° () - 9 AM 19° () - Noon 25° (15°) - 3 PM 26° (15°) - 6 PM 22° (15°)

A cold day is on tap for most of the region for your Tuesday. We'll be well established in the northwest flow aloft, which will help keep those temperatures pretty cold throughout the day despite decreasing cloud cover.

Wind speeds will vary between 10 to 15 mph today, which will make it feel even colder. The temperatures marked in blue above indicate the wind chill. Be sure to bundle up if you're going to be out and about. When you open the door and you're just like, "Nah, I'm good."
Partly cloudy skies will remain across the region tonight as lows dip into the upper teens across the area.

Wednesday 11/19 - Partly Cloudy - High 45° / Wed Night - Partly Cloudy - Low 29°

We'll see a bit of a break from the bitter cold on Wednesday as we're placed in the warm sector of an approaching low pressure system. We should see winds shift to out of the south which will help bring those surface temperatures up a few degrees. You can expect partly cloudy conditions throughout the day with a high around 45°.
WPC Forecast Frontal Positions - Valid Wednesday AM - NOAA WPC
WPC Forecast Frontal Positions - Valid Wednesday AM - NOAA WPC
A dry cold front will work into the region on Wednesday night. This may produce a few more clouds across the region and cause temperatures to drop back into the upper 20s. Winds will make it feel more like it's in the low 20s.

Thursday 11/20 - Partly Cloudy - High 36° / Thur Night - Partly Cloudy - Low 25°

Thursday will bring cooler conditions to the region once more. No doubt by now I'm beginning to sound like a broken record. You can expect partly cloudy skies with highs in the mid to upper 30s.

Partly cloudy conditions are in store Thursday night with lows in the mid 20s. It looks like a few changes may be on the way for the weekend though, perhaps a warm up? Stay tuned!

That should do it for this post. Be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG for the latest weather information. Bundle up and have a great day!

Monday, November 17, 2014

COLD With A Touch Of Snow

Today 11/17 - AM Snow; Afternoon Snow Showers; Falling Temps - High 32° ↓ / Tonight - Partly Cloudy; Cold - Low 16°

Pretty busy forecast today as sleet & snow showers have made an attempt to impact the morning commute.  There really haven't been many travel problems out there this morning.  

Hit & miss snow showers should continue until around 8am when drier air on the back side of the low pressure system begins to work into the area.  

Overall, accumulations haven't been impressive, with a solid coating being reported from a few locations.  With that being said, scattered snow showers sticking around could result in additional, very minor accumulations.

Our forecast has pretty much verified with this event up to this point, with above freezing temperatures holding out far too long for any decent accumulations to take place.  If you'd like to compare, here's our forecast from Sunday evening.  

With cold air filtering into the region throughout the day, a few snow showers will be possible in the early afternoon hours as well. Our high temperature is likely occurring as we speak.  The temperature will drop throughout the day. Below is an idea of what radar could look like around 9 AM as the main show moves east.
HRRR Simulated Radar - Valid 9 AM -
HRRR Simulated Radar - Valid 9 AM -
Here's a time table for today's temperatures:
32° at 6 AM

30° at Noon

27° at 3 PM (when our usual "high" temp occurs)

25° by 6 PM

The downward trend in temperatures will continue into the evening and overnight hours. Lows will bottom out around 16°. With wind speeds around 10-15 mph, this will make it feel more like it's in the single digits out there.  In other words, bundle up before you head out this morning!

Tuesday 11/18 - Mostly Sunny; Cold - High 24° / Tonight - Clear; Cold  - Low 19°

With the cold front now well to the east of the region, we'll begin to feel the effects of the flow from the northwest. Air from the northwest will filter into the region due to the influence of high pressure to the south and low pressure to the northeast.

Temperatures won't recover much at all on Tuesday. This will by far be the coldest day of the season thus far, as we'll only see highs in the mid 20s. Your face going to be like this when you open the door Tuesday morning:
Conditions will once again be very cold on Tuesday night as clear skies allow for lows to drop into the teens once more.

Wednesday 11/19 - Partly Cloudy - High 43° / Wed Night - Partly Cloudy - Low 25°

We'll finally see some "warmth" come back to the forecast on Wednesday.  This will be the first time the temperature will rise above freezing for almost 51 hours if the models are correct, and I have a feeling they will be.

This will be because we'll be placed in the warm sector of a low pressure system located to the north.  Soak in the warmer temperatures while you can.
Temperature Graph - Iowa State Meteogram
Temperature Graph - Iowa State Meteogram

Lows will once again dip down into the mid 20s during the overnight hours under partly cloudy skies.

That'll wrap up this blog post. Be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG for all the latest weather information.