Friday, July 10, 2015

Severe Threat Today

Today 7/10 – Partly sunny; Scat'd Storms (Potentially Severe) – High 91˚ / Tonight – Mostly Cloudy; Iso’d Storms – Low 72˚
blog 1
Surface analysis valid 4pm Friday (owxdata.com)
Good Morning! We’ve had a wet week so far with heavy rains and flooding across parts of the region, but an upper-level ridge and surface high pressure system should decrease our rain chances for the weekend.
Surface dewpoints valid 4pm Friday (owxdata.com)
Of course with temperatures nearing 90 degrees today and dewpoints in the 70s, there should be no lack of instability and mugginess in the air. Don’t be surprised to see scattered storms pop-up from midday on, similar to yesterday.
annoyed animated GIF
via giphy.com
With the available parameters in place, we have the possibility of seeing a few storms meet severe criteria. The SPC has placed all of south central Kentucky in a Slight Risk for severe weather this afternoon and evening:
SPC Convective Outlook
SPC Convective Outlook
Main threats with this particular setup will be torrential rainfall, along with damaging winds.  Although not significant, we'll have a marginal possibility of seeing a tornado or two develop.

Saturday 7/11 – Sunny; Iso’d Afternoon Storms – High 92˚ / Saturday Night – Partly Cloudy – Low 73˚

Much of this weekend looks to be a broken record forecast – hot and humid during the day and a chance of hit-and-miss storms in the afternoon. High temperatures will be a tad warmer Saturday and Sunday as southerly winds pull warm, humid air up from the Gulf. And you know what that means?
ron swanson animated GIF
via giphy.com
Yep, you guessed it. More storm chances on Saturday afternoon with forecasted CAPE values (storm energy) between 2000-4000 j kg-1, or in other words, very unstable air favorable for storm development.
blog 2
Surface CAPE values valid 4pm Saturday (owxdata.com)
Don’t expect too much to change for Sunday. You’ll probably want to keep cranking your AC.

Sunday 7/12 – Sunny; Iso’d afternoon storms – High 92˚ / Sunday Night – Partly Cloudy – Low 73˚

(See above) But really, Sunday looks to be a repeat of Saturday with more of the same muggy weather. High temperatures will likely be in the low 90s and dewpoints in the 70s again.  Heat index values will flirt with 100˚!
blog 3
Surface Temperature valid 4pm Sunday (owxdata.com)
I’m not sure what I’d rather have – endless rain or super uncomfortable heat. Either way, find a way to stay cool on Sunday whether it’s by the pool or in front of the air conditioner. I won’t judge.
hot animated GIF
via giphy.com

As always, continue to follow @WxOrNotBG on Twitter for more updates.

Thursday, July 9, 2015

Scattered Storm Chances Persist

Today, 7/9 - Partly Sunny; Scat'd Showers and Storms - High 88˚ / Tonight - Partly Cloudy; Scat'd Showers & Storms- Low 69˚

Good morning! As a low pressure system moves northeastward from Illinois up through Pennsylvania, a trailing cold front will allow for the possibility of some showers and storms today. As of 6am, we're already seeing light showers roll northeast across the northern tier of the area.
Thursday 1PM
WPC Surface Map, Valid 1PM Thursday, via NOAA
The latest models show most of the rain remaining to our north, along the axis of the front, but that does not rule out some scattered showers and thunderstorms during the day for us. These scattered rain chances will continue into the overnight hours, where they may pick up a bit around midnight.

As for temperatures, we'll see a high in the upper-80s in the afternoon, with strong gusty winds from the west and some high dew points (AKA - humid). Overnight, temperatures will drop to around 70° with winds becoming calm.

Friday, 7/10 - Mostly Sunny - High 89˚ / Friday Night - Partly Cloudy - Low 72˚

Friday looks to be mostly dry for Bowling Green, with just the slightest chance for an isolated pop-up. Counties to the north and east of ours could see a bit more rain Friday afternoon, but the rain received today and tomorrow will definitely be scattered - no washouts expected.
Friday 7AM
WPC Surface Map, Valid 7AM Friday, via NOAA
Ridging in the upper-atmosphere will build Friday and into Friday night, meaning that temperatures will remain warm and the air will feel quite muggy... Temperatures at or around 90° are expected Friday, with lows remaining in the low 70s overnight.

Saturday, 7/11 - Mostly Sunny - High 92˚ / Saturday Night - Partly Cloudy- Low 75˚

Ridging will continue to build into the weekend, keeping temperatures warm. Once again, rain will be situated to our north and east, but our area looks to remain dry! We'll see a mixture of clouds and sun, with partly cloudy/mostly sunny skies for our weekend!
Saturday 4PM
NAM Temperature Map, Valid 4PM Saturday, via NOAA
While it may be staying dry in Bowling Green, the air will feel quite wet. That summertime humidity is here to stay, with dew points in the 70s... That's muggy. And when high dew points combine with warm temperatures, the heat indices will reflect that it is going to feel much warmer than the actual temperature here in Bowling Green. So enjoy your weekend, but as always, stay smart.
giphy (42)
via giphy.com

As always, stay in touch with @WxOrNotBG for the latest real-time weather info. Have a great day!

Wednesday, July 8, 2015

Scattered Storm Chances Continue

Today: Partly sunny, with scattered showers & storms - high of 88ºF. Tonight: Partly cloudy, with widely scattered storms. Low of 74ºF.

Today is looking better than I anticipated it to in my forecast from yesterday morning, which is good if you like summer.
This just looked like summer. "Rad maaaaaan" h/t giphy.com
This just looked like summer. "Rad maaaaaan" h/t giphy.com
Its definitely gonna be a page out of the "Stereotypical Summer Days" book (that doesn't exist). The cold front that dropped heavy rainfall across the region yesterday (5.5" of rain in one hour in Paducah) and last night is looking to be draped across our region as a stationary front.

As a low pressure system to our west begins to develop and move northeastward, it will drag it north as a warm front. This will warm temps into the mid and upper 80s, with breezy southerly winds.
namCGP_sfc_temp_021 (1)
h/t COD Weather
A scattered shower & storm threat will exist along the boundary today...there could also be more in the afternoon and evening, depending on if we see any sunshine.
h/t COD Weather
Simulated Radar valid 4pm - h/t COD Weather
Overnight, we'll see temps fall into the mid 70s, with an isolated storm threat continuing.

Thursday: Warm, and breezy. Scattered storms possible, with a high around 87ºF. Thur. night: Partly cloudy, with a lot of 70ºF.

Today looks like it may turn out pretty nice for a change!
This is supposed to represent excitement. h/t giphy.com
This is supposed to represent excitement. h/t giphy.com
The day looks to have partly cloudy skies as we will be in the warm sector of a northeastward moving low pressure system. It'll drag another cold front into the region, but whether it is strong enough to fire up significant convection is murky.
*over exaggeration of me when examining the threat for storms* h/t giphy.com
*over exaggeration of me when examining the threat for storms* h/t giphy.com
I think that we could see some scattered scattered storms in the early to mid afternoon time frame, but the front may only afford us some cloud cover.
h/t COD Weather
h/t COD Weather
Another thing to watch: it looks pretty breezy across the region on Thursday, so that is another thing to be watching for.
h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com
Overnight, it looks really nice as skies stay partly cloudy with lows falling into the lower 70s.

Friday: Hot and humid. High near 90ºF. Fri. night: Mostly clear (!). Lows around 71ºF.

Friday looks like the hottest day of the week without a doubt. The sun will be out and winds will be out of the south and west, creating a good environment to have temps warm up higher. Look for dewpoints and temps to both be higher, creating a pretty lame temp environment outside. Highs will likely be around 90.
Friday looks humid. h/t COD Weather
Friday looks humid. h/t COD Weather
Overnight, it looks like end up being clear for once! That sounds really nice. Lows will end up in the lower 70s, again.

Well, thats all I have for now. Be sure to check out @WxOrNotBG for the latest information for the region.

Tuesday, July 7, 2015

Rain Chances Return

Today: Partly sunny, with scattered storms throughout the day. High of 86ºF. Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a continued threat of storms. Low of 73ºF.

I am, admittedly, skeptical of even my own forecast here. Though this is short-term forecasting, the models are leading me different directions. All three hi-res models are in different directions on convective strength and areal coverage this morning.
h/t COD Weather
h/t COD Weather
This leads to my skepticism. However, I am certain that there will be a pretty decent coverage of clouds and storms throughout the day. A cold front is making its way across the region, dragging eastward with a low pressure centered in Canada.
h/t COD Weather
Simulated Radar valid 4pm
This will keep the storm threat throughout the day, with partly sunny skies and highs in the mid and upper 80s.  It appears that we'll see a round of showers and storm track through this morning, eventually letting up by midday.

Depending on how much sunshine we see will determine how much our atmosphere recovers. If we get a decent amount of sunshine, redevelopment of strong storms will be more susceptible this afternoon. Our main threat will be torrential rain and flooding.
h/t COD Weather
h/t COD Weather
As we head into the overnight hours, the storm threat will remain across the region, and lows will only drop into the lower 70s.  The SPC has us included in a Marginal Risk for severe storms today, with a 5% probability of at least 58mph winds and/or 1" diameter hail occurring within 25 miles of you:
Tuesday's SPC Convective Outlook
Tuesday's SPC Convective Outlook

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with scattered storms. High of 85ºF. Wed. night: Continued storm threat, with partly cloudy skies. Lows around 70ºF.

For being a summer forecast, this is actually quite the tough forecast.
h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com
A lot of Wednesday's forecast depends on how far south and east that cold front makes it. Many of the models drop this front just to our north, and stall it out. This would put us just south of a thunderstorm initiation point, and it doesn't take much of a trigger to light em up this time of year.
Wednesday begins with the stationary front to our north....h/t COD Weather
Wednesday begins with the stationary front to our north....h/t COD Weather
.....And ends the day with the front lifting northward as a warm front. h/t COD Weather
.....And ends the day with the front lifting northward as a warm front. h/t COD Weather
There should also be a relatively tight temperature gradient associated with this front. To its north, there will be cooler and drier conditions. To the south, hot, humid and stormy. Right now, it looks like that we are going to experience the latter of the two, but weak cold fronts act weird sometimes.

Anyways, I am expecting scattered storms throughout the day, with highs ending up in the mid and upper 80s (again). Overnight, the threat continues, with lows dropping into the lower 70s.

Thursday: Breezy and warm, with isolated storms. High of 90ºF. Thur. night: Same 'ole, same 'ole. Partly cloudy, chance of storms. Low of 71ºF.

Thursday gets a lot easier to forecast than Wednesday, which makes me happy!

The stationary front that I discussed earlier in the post will begin to life northward in association with a new low pressure system. There will likely be storms with this low, but not necessarily near us. Highs will end up in the lower 90s, with a breezy southwesterly wind.
h/t COD Weather
h/t COD Weather
Thursday night looks to be just as boring as any other summer night forecast is. Partly cloudy, isolated storms. Nothing unusual to see here. Look for lows to drop into the lower 70s (again).

Well, thats all I have for today. Be sure to check out @WxOrNotBG for the latest weather info across the region.

Monday, July 6, 2015

Return of Heat & Humidity

Today 7/6 - Mostly Sunny - High 86° / Tonight - Partly Cloudy; Isolated Showers - Low 71°

Surface high pressure will strengthen across the region today in response to the upper level low departing from the region. This should help keep a lot of the clouds and rain away for today. Overall a nice day is shaping up with mostly sunny skies and afternoon highs around 86°.
h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com
Tonight will bring partly cloudy skies to the region with a chance of isolated showers as a shortwave trough develops. Lows will be around 71°.

Tuesday 7/7 - Partly Cloudy - High 87° / Tue Night - Mostly Cloudy - Low 72°

After some isolated morning showers and thunderstorms, conditions should begin to clear out some on Tuesday. Low level wind fields will strengthen out of the southwest throughout the day. This will advect warm, moist air into the region from the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific Ocean. As a result of this, we'll see temperature and moisture increase. A high of 87° is forecast, but it will feel closer to 95° due to the humidity.
h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com
Tuesday night will bring mostly cloudy skies with a low around 72°.

Wednesday 7/8 - Isolated AM Showers; Partly Cloudy - High 90° / Wed Night - Mostly Clear - Low 70°

A strong shortwave trough will take place to the north of the region on Wednesday morning. This may lead to a line of showers or thunderstorms in the morning hours on Wednesday. 

However, this shortwave will begin to lose intensity and organization throughout the day, so additional development in the afternoon is not expected. Highs will be around 90°, but will feel more like 95° to 100° due to the humidity.
h/t giphy.com
"Are you Serious?" - h/t giphy.com
Yes, unfortunately I am serious...

Wednesday night will bring mostly clear skies to the region, with a low around 70°.

That should wrap up this forecast. Be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG for the latest south central Kentucky weather information. Have a great day!