Thursday, May 28, 2015

Broken Record Forecast

Today - Partly Cloudy; Scat'd showers & storms - High 85˚ / Tonight - Partly Cloudy - Low 68˚

Good Morning! This week has turned out to be rather wet with repetitive storms moving through the area. Almost half an inch of rain was recorded by the Warren County Mesonet station yesterday, making a total of 1.5 inches of rain received this week! A good amount of folks here in Butler County received much more than that, with values of up to 3" being reports the past few days!
NOAA Surface Analysis valid 7am Thursday
We won't escape from the rain anytime soon. It looks like today will have high chances of scattered showers & storms, due to a weak frontal boundary passing through the region. This front looks to stall out and become somewhat stationary, which will provide hit and miss precipitation for most of the day. Don't forget your umbrella!
happy animated GIF

Friday - Partly Sunny; Scat'd Showers & Storms - High 84˚ / Friday Night - Cloudy; Scattered Showers - Low 70˚
NAM Simulated Reflectivity valid 7pm Friday, courtesy
Thank goodness it's almost Friday! Friday looks to be another rinse & repeat forecast, as seen in the simulated reflectivity above. Scattered showers & storm chances will once again be joined by partly sunny skies. Expect that dreadful humidity that we all know and love to hang around, as dewpoints stretch into the mid 70s for some of us. The sun will tempt you to be outdoors, but don't be embarrassed to stay in and crank that AC.
animal animated GIF

Saturday - Mostly Cloudy; Possible afternoon storms - High 81˚ / Saturday Night - Mostly Cloudy; Scattered showers - Low 68˚

No relief from the rain for Saturday either, unfortunately. Another frontal boundary will pass through the region - this time bringing slightly cooler temperatures with it. High temperatures are expected to be in the low 80s. The highest chance for storms looks to be in the afternoon hours and throughout the night.

With all this rain we've been having, you might want to invest in a rowboat to get around Bowling Green. Try your best to stay dry and be sure to check back tomorrow with an update in the forecast!
That will be all for the morning post.  As always, stay up to date with the latest real-time info by staying connected with @WxOrNotBG & @wkuCHAOS.  Have a great Thursday!

Wednesday, May 27, 2015

Scattered Storm Chances This Afternoon

Today, 5/27 - Partly Cloudy/Sunny; Afternoon Showers & Storms - High 84˚ / Tonight - Iso'd Showers & Storms - Low 63˚

Good morning Bowling Green! The wet, muggy weather we've seen the last few days is unfortunately going to continue into what Pierce called yesterday a "rinse and repeat" forecast. We're stuck in a summer pattern with temperatures in the 80s and scattered showers and storms during the afternoon. Okay, that's all you need to know.
giphy (34)
But if you really want more, you can surely keep reading... The day should begin mostly dry, with partly cloudy to partly sunny skies. Rain chances will return during the afternoon, as disturbances in the atmosphere allow scattered showers and storms to pop up around the area.

Widespread severe weather is not anticipated, however, a few cells could end up meeting criteria. The biggest concern with any storm that develops will be torrential rainfall, strong winds and hail. It will be very muggy today, and any act of forcing should help fire off convection.
Wednesday 1PM
WPC Surface Map, Valid 1 PM Wednesday, via NOAA
Temperatures should hit the mid-80s as southwesterly winds bring dew points around 70° - That's muggy right there. These scattered storms will continue into the overnight hours with a low temperature in the low to mid-60s.

Thursday, 5/28 - Partly Sunny; Afternoon Showers & Storms - High 84˚ / Thursday Night - Partly Cloudy - Low 65˚

Thursday looks to be a repeat of today: Hot? Yes. Humid? Yes. Chance for afternoon storms? Yes. The main difference in Thursday's forecast is that Thursday night looks to be mainly dry in our area, with more isolated activity off to our east.

Temperatures will once again hit the mid-80s during the day, with lows in the mid-60s overnight. I really wish I could say more because I'm starting to feel like a broken record here.
giphy (32)

Friday, 5/29 - Partly Sunny; Afternoon/Evening Showers & Storms - High 86˚ / Friday Night - Sct'd Showers & Storms - Low 67˚

The way we are situated in regards to atmospheric flow is allowing for these recurrences of scattered showers and storms every day. Luckily, no severe threats are expected for the remainder of the week, and these pop-up storms do not look like they will produce any extreme rainfall.
Day 1-3 QPF
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, Valid 7 PM Tuesday - 7 PM Friday, via NOAA
They're mainly just pesky, as we will have the chance for rain every day. And these humidity values aren't doing a thing for my hair...
giphy (33)
So on Friday... I think you can forecast this one. Temperatures look like they may be a degree or so warmer on Friday, with showers and storms picking up late afternoon, and continuing into the overnight hours. Storm chances will unfortunately pick up this weekend, so keep your umbrella handy, because you'll definitely be needing it this week.

As always, stay in touch with @WxOrNotBG for the latest real-time weather info. Have a great day!

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Severe Weather Possible Today

Today: Partly cloudy, with showers and storms. Some could be strong to severe. High of 80ºF / Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy, with a low of 64ºF.

Well, at least the majority of your Memorial Day weekend was good....until yesterday. The rain and clouds ruined most plans, and put a nasty damper on the weekend as a whole. Today isn't looking too great, either.
There's gonna be a this thing called a shortwave that rotates into the region around a mid-level low pressure system today. This will assist in firing off scattered storms late this morning into early afternoon. The HRRR simulated radar model suggests strong storms will move through around 10am - 1pm:
HRRR Simulated Radar Valid 12pm - via WeatherBELL
HRRR Simulated Radar Valid 11am - via WeatherBELL
If we can get enough clearing, look for highs to rocket into the 80s, with a chance at a few storms meeting severe criteria. The latest convective outlook for today is provided below. As you can see, it includes all of south central Kentucky in a Slight Risk for severe storms today...
SPC Convective Outlook valid Tuesday
SPC Convective Outlook valid Tuesday
The main threats with this setup will be large hail and damaging winds, though, I am not buying it too much. A very marginal threat will be an isolated tornado spin-up. Just be alert as the day progresses. Overnight, more stable air will roll into the region, and while it'll be a bit muggy, the temps should fall into the mid 60s, which woulds okay with me.

Wednesday: Evening showers and storms; otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy. High of 83ºF. Wed. night: Isolated showers, becoming partly cloudy. Lows around 65ºF.

Man, this summer-like forecast is already boring me. Boring me to exhaustion (I was already there). Everyday has a chance of being really hot, and having a storms. Go to sleep, rinse, repeat. Its a big version of "Groundhog" the movie.
h/t cinemablend
h/t cinemablend
Well, like most summer forecasts, you will see some afternoon activity pop up. This should keep it pretty clear outside of those storms, with highs rising into the mid 80s. Overnight, look for skies to get relatively clear, with lows in the mid 60s.

Thursday: Rinse and repeat (aka: see Wednesdays' precip forecast). High of 84ºF. Thurs. night: Mostly clear. Low of 64ºF.

Lets skip back to winter weather forecasting. Seriously. This is gonna get old quick. See, unlike the other 3 seasons, summer is the only time in which the weather is constantly being consistent. It doesn't keep you on your toes. It makes you need to innovate...I have no ideas.

Overall, its looking like a relatively nice day. Some afternoon storms are possible with an otherwise mostly cloudy sky. Temps will rise into the mid 80s, but severe weather is unlikely. The SPC has included us in a Marginal Risk for strong storms Thursday:
h/t SPC
h/t SPC
Looking at the overnight hours, it looks like skies will become mostly clear, with lows in the mid 60s.

For the latest on the severe weather threat across the region today, be sure to check out @WxOrNotBG on Twitter for the latest! Stay safe.

Monday, May 25, 2015

Rainy Memorial Day; Severe Threat Tuesday

Today 5/25 - Scattered Showers and Storms - High 81° / Tonight - Partly Cloudy - Low 67°

An elongated area of low pressure to the west of the region will move closer to south-central Kentucky. High pressure over the southeastern United States will result in southwest flow at the surface, as well as aloft across the region.

This will lead to increased warm air advection and moisture advection. Thus, scattered showers and storms will be possible thru much of the day. It does appear that once we get into the afternoon, conditions will dry out to an extent. Highs will be around 81°. The Hi-Res NAM model suggest activity will taper off to isolated storms between 5 to 7 PM:
Hi-Res NAM Simulated Radar - Valid 7 PM - WeatherBELL Analytics
Hi-Res NAM Simulated Radar - Valid 7 PM - WeatherBELL Analytics
Any thunderstorms should begin to diminish after sunset. Partly cloudy skies seem possible overnight with a low around 67°.

Tuesday 5/26 - Scattered Severe Storms - High 83° / Tue Night - Partly Cloudy - Low 66°

The aforementioned area of low pressure will continue to overspread the region. Widespread divergence aloft and convergence at the surface will result in ample lift for widespread showers and thunderstorms in the morning hours. This complicates the severe weather risk for Tuesday.

If showers and thunderstorms are numerous in the morning hours on Tuesday, the atmosphere will have less time to destabilize effectively by the time more thunderstorms can develop. On the flip side, if there are no morning showers and thunderstorms, then more instability will be available for thunderstorms to tap into. Keep updated with the latest forecasts for more information. Highs will be around 83°.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of south-central Kentucky in a Slight Risk for severe weather on Tuesday. Main threats will be damaging wind and the potential for large hail. An isolated tornado threat will also be present.

Screen Shot 2015-05-24 at 6.53.19 AM

Tuesday night will bring partly cloudy skies to the region with a low around 66°.

Wednesday 5/27 - Scattered Showers - High 81° / Wed Night - Isolated Showers - Low 65°

There's a bit of model disagreement regarding Wednesday. The NAM model is much slower with the progression of the precipitation, thus it would be a good idea to introduce a chance of scattered showers in the morning and afternoon hours. However, this may be altered in later forecasts. Highs will be in the low 80s. Rain certainly would ruin a great day, so we'll do our best to get that out of the forecast.
Wednesday night will bring some isolated showers to the region with a low of 65°.
Be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG for the latest Bowling Green weather information. Have a great day!

Friday, May 22, 2015

Nice Today; Rain Chances Late This Weekend

Today - Sunny - High 73/Tonight - Clear - Low 57

Good morning! If you were a bit chilly yesterday, I have good news for you. Below-average temperatures are on the rise for the weekend and sunny skies are in store. The high pressure system currently situated over the area will continue moving eastward and provide lovely weather for all your Memorial Day Weekend plans.

happy animated GIF

Saturday - Mostly Sunny - High 80/Saturday Night - Partly Cloudy - Low 60

Saturday looks to be just as great as Friday with even warmer temperatures in the forecast. An upper-level disturbance will help to bring more clouds into the area, but don't worry - no rain is expected. Highs will likely break 80 degrees as winds become more southerly. Saturday is probably the best day to be outdoors, so make sure you take advantage of it! Sunday brings our first chance of rain for the weekend.

cat animated GIF

Sunday - Cloudy & Scattered Showers - High 84/ Sunday Night - Mostly Cloudy - Low 68

66NAM Simulated Reflectivity valid 1pm Sunday, courtesy

You couldn't escape a chance of showers this weekend, could you? A slow-moving warm front could cause isolated storms in some areas and overcast skies are likely. NAM simulated reflectivity suggests scattered showers early Sunday afternoon, however timing is likely to change with new model output. Highs will get up into the mid 80s across the region, but it may be a little muggy as humidity increases. Make sure to keep your eyes on the weather so your cook-outs aren't rained out!

Have a great weekend and check back later for an update on the rain chances for Sunday! Be sure to stay in touch with @WxOrNotBG for the latest real-time weather info.