Monday, April 15, 2013

Cloudy And Warm

Good Monday morning, friends!  Thanks for stopping by for your weather forecast.  We'll see a mix of sun and clouds today, and sadly, the latter will dominate.  A system to our south will keep cloud cover intact through this afternoon, but I expect to see partial clearing by this evening.  We'll remain nice and warm through Thursday, however, several disturbances will keep an active forecast consisting of showers and thunderstorms in place.  Thursday night into Friday, a major cool down will occur.

OUTLOOK
Monday: Partly Cloudy, High of 78, S Wind 10-20mph
Monday Night: Isolated Storms, Low of 60, S Wind 10-15mph
Tuesday: Partly Sunny, Scattered Storms, High of 83
Tuesday Night: Scattered Storms, Low of 66
Wednesday: Partly Sunny, Scattered Storms, High of 84
Wednesday Night: Isolated Storms, Low of 68
Thursday: Storms Likely, High of 75
Thursday Night: Storms Likely, Low of 44
Friday: Partly Sunny, High of 52

FORECAST DISCUSSION

The model provided displays a system located to our south, which will be responsible for providing cloudy conditions through the start of our day.  A cold front located to our west will slowly orient itself across southern Indiana and Illinois, eventually stalling out later this afternoon.  This front will eventually dip southward over our area tonight into Tuesday, which will create the opportunity at scattered thunderstorms for west central Kentucky.  A few storms could quickly intensify, producing small hail and strong winds.  We'll see a nearly identical forecast for our Wednesday, before a washout looks to arrive Thursday, and last through the early morning hours of our Friday.


A strong area of low pressure will advance northeast out of the plains and into the Ohio Valley, creating a very similar setup to the soaker we experienced last week.  A trailing cold front will take its sweet time pushing east across our region, as an "atmospheric river" of moisture streams northeast out of the Gulf.  We could see a few strong storms develop as a result, however, ample rainfall will be our main concern.  The most recent QPF run continues to paint sufficient rainfall values for us through Friday evening, with values of 2-3" not out of the question.

As the front ends up east of our area early Friday morning, much cooler air will advect in from our west.  This will result in high temperatures being limited to the 50s on Friday and Saturday, before rebounding back into the 60s this coming Sunday.

That's all I've got for now, gang.  I'll be back around 11am with the Midday Update.  Have a great week, and thanks for relying on ~ Beech Tree Weather!